I agree, the potential benefit here far outweighs the risk. I've been contemplating adding Burnett for a while now in a 12 team mixed H2H league. I've held off this long simply because I already own James McDonald and that would be waaaay too many Pirates starters for my taste...keep in mind that I'm an O's fan so I feel your pain, lol
Many "experts" are calling for a rebound from Lincecum, propping him up as a prime buy-low candidate. I've got the extra innings package and I've watched all of Lincecum starts, especially those against the Dodgers, my NL team. I haven't seen anything that indicates that Lincecum is going to magically turn things around...I also don't see anything that points to some unknown injury lying below the surface. All I see is a guy who has been a rock in the past, but has now averaged 220 IP/season over the last four years. And while he's only 26 yrs old he reminds me of another ace who started to break down around the same age, maybe you've heard of him: Jake Peavy. I think we are simly witnessing the decline of Tim Lincecum and his "big" injury is coming very soon. That being said I don't see that happening this year and I believe he will rebound somewhat. His numbers will not come anywhere close to his previous seasons though. I'd look for numbers that will at the very least be comparable to Burnett for the rest of the season...so you make the deal because of that and just hope for an even bigger rebound. Like you said, in the past you wouldn't have even thought twice about this deal....giventhe current situation though I think your trepedation is justified. But the gamble is worth it for someone as wildly unpredictable as Burnett.