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Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby OBPlover » Tue May 22, 2012 5:35 pm

Oh so that's the new B.S. they are using to discredit Moneyball ?

OBP only works when there are lots of home runs being hit ?

It's about time they came up something new. The traditional baseball media just can't stand the fact that the cliches they have been spouting for decades have been slowly discredited.

I'm glad to see they haven't folded in the towel, nobody likes a quitter. Poor France.
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby bigh0rt » Tue May 22, 2012 5:43 pm

OBPlover wrote:Oh so that's the new B.S. they are using to discredit Moneyball ?

OBP only works when there are lots of home runs being hit ?

It's about time they came up something new. The traditional baseball media just can't stand the fact that the cliches they have been spouting for decades have been slowly discredited.

I'm glad to see they haven't folded in the towel, nobody likes a quitter. Poor France.
I really think that, despite both topics being mentioned within the pages of the book, you're combining two entirely separate entities here. I know this has been pointed out to you more than once and you've chosen to ignore it, and that's cool, so maybe this is just a waste of my time. But using the term 'Moneyball' and 'high OBP' interchangeably means you should go back and read the book again, because if that's all you took from it, you missed a good chunk of it. Again, I'm certainly not the one pointing this out.
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby OBPlover » Tue May 22, 2012 5:55 pm

There are still so many doubters,

OK so I'm going to present to you, why OBP is important:

1) All by itself, it is THE MOST important stat to predict the number of runs a team will score. They actually do have stats to prove it. If you look back at teams, not just last year, not 10 years ago, but look back at 100 years worth of data and OBP is highly correlated to runs scored. The vast majority of times that a team is near the top of the league in OBP, it is at the top of the league in Runs scored. If offense is up, like ti was 10 years ago, than all it means is that more games will be won 10-9 than are won by a score of 5-4. You want to play small ball? you want to bunt and hit and run because Home runs are down? You can't do it without getting men on base.

2) Outside from this, patience will help all other aspects of a hitters play. Getting deeper into counts? You want to see a BABIP comparison between 3-0 or 3-1 counts compared to swings in 1-2 or 0-2 counts? You want more home runs? Also easier to hit when hitters are ahead of the count.

But as they say in the infomercials "But wait there's more"

Let's talk about psychology. Now for SABR matricians. PSYCH is a dirty word. Why? Because stats can't prove or disporve anything psychological. But hell, you can't convince people who believe in the "human element" using logic.. So let's beat them at their own game. Or as I once heard.. "You can't convince French people to start liking Americans by talking to them in English".

3) Do you think with runners on base, that is good or bad for a pitcher's confidence? Hopefully, you will agree that it's kind of bad, knowing one mistake can cost them 3 runs as compared to 1.

4) What about the hitter at the plate? With runners on base, being held, there are more gaps in the infield, making it easier to score runs. This has to be good for a hitter's condifence.

5)Finally lets look at the umpires. Wheen there have already been a few walks given. Do you think the umpires will me or less likely to given borderline calls to the pitcher?
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby OBPlover » Tue May 22, 2012 6:24 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
OBPlover wrote:Oh so that's the new B.S. they are using to discredit Moneyball ?

OBP only works when there are lots of home runs being hit ?

It's about time they came up something new. The traditional baseball media just can't stand the fact that the cliches they have been spouting for decades have been slowly discredited.

I'm glad to see they haven't folded in the towel, nobody likes a quitter. Poor France.
I really think that, despite both topics being mentioned within the pages of the book, you're combining two entirely separate entities here. I know this has been pointed out to you more than once and you've chosen to ignore it, and that's cool, so maybe this is just a waste of my time. But using the term 'Moneyball' and 'high OBP' interchangeably means you should go back and read the book again, because if that's all you took from it, you missed a good chunk of it. Again, I'm certainly not the one pointing this out.


I haven't chosen to ignore anything. I understand Moneyball is about ineffeciencies. My points are a) That OBP is still being ignored. and b) Looking for inefficiencies from say defense or SBs is a waste of time. IF the New York Yankees decide to load up on a team with all high OBPs or for that matter all their hitters have sky high OPS and can put it 1 through 9 through it's batting order, than a team filled with overlooked Outfield defense stands no chance of competing. If the most important stats are properly analyzed and prioritized, there's no point looking for inefficiencies to get 1 or 2 extra wins a year. Your team is still going to lose.

All SABR metric stats and theories are still being largely ignored. Like someone said earlier, the next big thing is to stop overpaying for closers. Do you think that if teams understand the concepts of Moneyball, why do they continue to overpay for closers and yet they pay fair market value for OBP?
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby bayside » Tue May 22, 2012 7:30 pm

OBPlover, are you really SpecialNFK??
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby OBPlover » Tue May 22, 2012 7:56 pm

No, why do you ask?
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby Ender » Tue May 22, 2012 11:46 pm

1) All by itself, it is THE MOST important stat to predict the number of runs a team will score. They actually do have stats to prove it. If you look back at teams, not just last year, not 10 years ago, but look back at 100 years worth of data and OBP is highly correlated to runs scored. The vast majority of times that a team is near the top of the league in OBP, it is at the top of the league in Runs scored. If offense is up, like ti was 10 years ago, than all it means is that more games will be won 10-9 than are won by a score of 5-4. You want to play small ball? you want to bunt and hit and run because Home runs are down? You can't do it without getting men on base.



I agree with this in general but you really have to be careful with statements like this. One thing OBP is also strongly correlated with is SLG. IF you can't hit a HR pitchers just don't throw balls to you and you can't walk even if you understand the strike zone. Juan Pierre has an amazing contact rate and an elite understanding of the strike zone but he still just can't walk because nobody is afraid to throw him strikes. If you have a ton of power they will try to work around you and you will walk more, even an absolutely horrible hitter like Mark Reynolds gets walked a good bit because they will just try to let him get himself out and not challenge him. When you understand that OBP breeds SLG you are basically saying that OPS is where the value is in which case you have sort of debunked the OBP is what is important.
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby jcook3127 » Tue May 22, 2012 11:54 pm

Ender wrote:
1) All by itself, it is THE MOST important stat to predict the number of runs a team will score. They actually do have stats to prove it. If you look back at teams, not just last year, not 10 years ago, but look back at 100 years worth of data and OBP is highly correlated to runs scored. The vast majority of times that a team is near the top of the league in OBP, it is at the top of the league in Runs scored. If offense is up, like ti was 10 years ago, than all it means is that more games will be won 10-9 than are won by a score of 5-4. You want to play small ball? you want to bunt and hit and run because Home runs are down? You can't do it without getting men on base.



I agree with this in general but you really have to be careful with statements like this. One thing OBP is also strongly correlated with is SLG. IF you can't hit a HR pitchers just don't throw balls to you and you can't walk even if you understand the strike zone. Juan Pierre has an amazing contact rate and an elite understanding of the strike zone but he still just can't walk because nobody is afraid to throw him strikes. If you have a ton of power they will try to work around you and you will walk more, even an absolutely horrible hitter like Mark Reynolds gets walked a good bit because they will just try to let him get himself out and not challenge him. When you understand that OBP breeds SLG you are basically saying that OPS is where the value is in which case you have sort of debunked the OBP is what is important.


Yeah my thoughts exactly...I'm not sure OPS wouldn't correlate just as well to runs scored..
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Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby lastingsgriller » Wed May 23, 2012 10:08 am

I love how the guy named "OBPLover" refuses to consider any point of view outside of his own OBP- centric point of view. Funny thing is, most likely he developed his irrational love for OBP from the book money ball, which is a book trying to get you to think different about the game, but he is still regurgitating theories relating to the game 10 years ago.

OBP- please don't just spout off unsupported facts such as, teams with the best OBP traditionally have won championships. 1) back up your statements with facts and links, this is the internet, it's easy. 2) duh. Of course good teams have high OBP, they also hit home runs, have high batting averages, score lots of runs, have a high ops, low era, low whip, etc. etc.. That's why they're good. Guess what? The '27 Yankees got on base alot. Youre going to have to find a way to show that OBP correlates to wins independently of other stats, otherwise, you haven't really made any point.
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby OBPlover » Fri May 25, 2012 5:47 pm

lastingsgriller wrote:I love how the guy named "OBPLover" refuses to consider any point of view outside of his own OBP- centric point of view.


My name is based on my understanding and appreciation for this universally and eternally underappreciated stat. Not the other way around.

Funny thing is, most likely he developed his irrational love for OBP from the book money ball


OBP has been quoted for years. Long before moneyball. I actually developed my rational love for OBP by reading Bill James.

Tell me genius, what exactly is irrational about "loving" the most important statistic? If I called myself "battingaveragelover" it would be irrational.

which is a book trying to get you to think different about the game, but he is still regurgitating theories relating to the game 10 years ago.


The theories relating to the game, as described in Moneyball, were developed and popularized in the late 1970's and early 1980's which was when Bill James' writing gained popularity. OBP has nothing to do with "Moneyball" other than it was an undervalued stat.

I am the one thinking outside the box. The popular opinion seems to be that "Moneyball" theories only worked because it was implemented during a time of "steroidball" (Elevated offense) and that OBP is no longer an opportunity for teams to get better, cheaply. (Both these widely held views are Absolutely False)

OBP- please don't just spout off unsupported facts such as, teams with the best OBP traditionally have won championships.

I never said that.

1) back up your statements with facts and links, this is the internet,

You back up your own statements with facts and links. I am especially looking forward to reading about how OBP is not an important statistic. That should make for good reading.

it's easy. 2) duh. Of course good teams have high OBP, they also hit home runs, have high batting averages, score lots of runs, have a high ops, low era, low whip, etc. etc.. That's why they're good. Guess what? The '27 Yankees got on base alot. Youre going to have to find a way to show that OBP correlates to wins independently of other stats, otherwise, you haven't really made any point.



And just how am I supposed to do that??? As I said before, patient hitters tend to excel at other things. What have I said, that isn't simply common sense?

You have over 3000 posts but if you don't understand the importance of OBP,then you don't really know anything about statistics amd you really have no business providing advice for other people.
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