Top 5 Starting Pitchers - D. Price, Beachy, Minor, Holland, Kimbrel, Guerra, Santos
Those aren't the types of pitchers I'm really talking about here, those are guys with some sort of track record. I'm also not talking about the uber can't miss have to draft them early type prospects like Strasburg
Beachymania and Minor and the others had the same readable track record as the other guys you're poo-poohing on. They have a minor league track record of k/9 and k/bb that we can study. It's not dumb luck.
My point is that if you are good at drafting and you trust your skills you are better off taking risks late on hitting than pitching, pitching is just too volatile and guys with no track records are as likely to hurt you as help you, especially if you are in any sort of highly competitive league where the owners are snatching up the top prospects before they even make the league.
disagree. That top hitting prospect is just as likely to fail as the pitching prospect, and probably even more likely to get snatched up in a competitive league. You'll have to pay an even higher premium (draft pick) to get em.
Pitching is deeper, allot deeper.
To answer the original question I'd look at Bauer but to be honest I just dropped him in my keeper league because his BB rates have been so suspect in the minors and I decided I didn't want to take the risk on him blowing up when he gets called up and damaging my team for good since we have a 1450 IP cap and 3 bad starts can lose my first place quite easily.
baloney. Three bad starts is not going to derail your team. The hits, walks and earned runs the high reward prospect might cost you over your average replacement pitcher, say a Capuano, is minimal.
In my H2H league a guy like that is likely sitting out by the playoffs so he isn't going to do me much good and my 3rd league is a no bench league so you can't really call up a guy early and you don't want someone who doesn't have a secure job.
I do find it comical that you keep going back to the competitiveness of your leagues, like we're just a bunch of bumpkins playing yahoo public.
While people can point to the success stories you can't ignore the failures too,
the same goes for hitters too. I could sit here and rattle off two pages of failed hitting prospects that people will still spend a draft pick on to this day. Pedro Alvarez anybody. Is Chris Davis still getting drafted?
That is fine for a young hitter but for a young pitcher it just hurts your team too much when they start slow that it isn't worth the risk.
what? Yeah those constant 0 fers that you spent a 13th round pick on don't hurt at all.
The same reason I don't usually buy guys like Liriano or Volquez
I'm a padres fan and you wont see Volquez on my team. Yet I might be willing to take a chance on Wieland. Just dumb luck I guess.
I'd like to think I studied the situation, but I guess I was wrong.