OBPlover wrote:Ender wrote:Or he'll pitch just like last year because he is in a strong division and worse park which is going to offset any gains he has from starting the year healthy.
I kept hearing that Josh Johnson lost something off his fastball and now throws in only about the 88-90 MPH range, where as in his domination years, he was throwing around 93-95MPH.
Josh Johnson risk checklist:
Injury History - Check
Decrease in "stuff" - check
Moved to an American League hitters park that punishes RH Pitching - check
Wasn't even really dominant the previous year - Check
I am a blue jays fan but I wouldn't gamble with JJ unless I got outstanding value. But he's going for the 10-15 dollar mark and I'm going to pass. No pitcher with 4 checkmarks should be paid for with double digits.
If you believe all that then fine, but when Roger Clemens went from Boston to Toronto he had all those checks plus age and we know what happened next. I think JJ will rebound a good amount, but I think his K rate will continue to drop slowly.