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Wadderboiz wrote:This deal is essentially a wash for one year. Too often we look at trades and consider only the players explicitly involved in the deal, the problem with that is we don't consider the effect Player A has on Team A in the grand scheme of things.
Realistically if you have Lincecum instead of Halladay are your final overall team numbers going to be drastically affected by Halladay's 0.3 or 0.4 something better ERA, or will the extra 5-10 K's Lincecum gets be the deciding factor between winning and losing the league. More than likely not.
I look at this trade for 1 year as making a deal for the sake of making a deal. Upton will get a little better, Ellsbury's numbers won't quite be as good as last year, making it a wash essentially. Upton is younger but it's not as if Ellsbury is an aging veteran he's only 28 so it's not as if 2 years from now he'll be on the decline. And do you really think Upton in his prime will have a better line than : .321 AVG / 32 HR / 105 RBI / 119 R / 39 SB.
The only real advantage you have is if it is a keeper league I'd side with Lincecum and Upton based strictly on age and the ability keep them longer than 2 or 3 years.
thatguysound wrote:Agreed for the most part. I'm not convinced that its a wash this year. FWIW, I do believe that Upton will have a better line in 2012, not just moving forward. I see him as .295/.380/.575 with 40 HR, 115 RBI, 105 R, and 25 SB. And that's for a solid 5 year stretch, beginning this season. I don't see Ellsbury having a year like 2011 ever again, and think he probably falls back a bit this year - .300/.370/.475 with 25 HR, 95 RBI, 110 R, and 40 SB. Fantastic year - but not what I think Upton will be capable of.
HOOTIE wrote:You would never get Upton in my keeper leagues with this trade.
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