thatguysound wrote:How does the rest of your rotation look?
Ellsbury isn't going to get much better - the only thing he has for sure over Upton is the SB. Upton is going to keep improving - and he has HR and RBI over Ellsbury. AVG and R are going to be about even. I have no problem with Ellsbury being the better player for this year, maybe. But in 2013? And 2014? And 2020? I doubt it.
Doc isn't going to get much better, which is good - he's phenomenal. But he's not >>> than Tim. He's > better. Tim struggled a bit, it's true, but still had a real good season last year. Even his big down year was better than most. In a keeper league, the difference between Doc and Tim is going to stay pretty close as Doc gets older. The difference between Ellsbury and Upton will only increase in Upton's favor.
I'd rather have players who are better than to take players who I hope will get better. And for the most part there is a restriction on keepers, and I don't see Ellsbury struggling in the next 3 years.
Who says there has to be a restriction on keepers?
OBP? edge to Upton. HR? Edge to Upton. RBI? Edge to Upton. SB? Edge to Ellsbury (although 20+ from Upton is nothing to sneeze at). R? even. H? even.
Last year was the first time that Ellsbury had an OPS over .800. Upton has already done it three times.
I don't see Ellsbury struggling, but he's going to be coming out of his prime years just as Upton is entering them. Like I said, you can make the argument right now that Ellsbury might have the better season than Upton. But this is the last time you can do that. And if he plays in a keeper league, all the more reason to consider the deal.
I'm not saying that it's a no brainer, and you obviously can't go wrong by keeping Doc and Ells. But it is by NO MEANS an obvious reject. I'd try to talk them into a deal that was more in my favor, of course - probably using a lot of the same arguments that you're using! - but at the end of the day, if the other manager wasn't going to budge, I would probably do that trade.
As of 8/4/13
C:Napoli 1B:Goldshmidt 2B:Kinsler, Gyorko SS:Tulo, Profar 3B:Longoria, Machado, Middlebrooks OF:Harper, J. Upton, AGon, R. Davis, Venable SP:Scherzer, Minor, Ryu, E.Santana, Beachy, Samardzja, J.Johnson (DL), T.Ross RP:Perez, Rodney, Farquar