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thatguysound wrote:Keeper league? I take Upton and Tim.
One year league? Depends on the rest of your team.
I like Upton better than Ellsbury simply because of ceiling. Ellsbury has likely hit his, which means he can only get worse. Upton is still ascending. Doc and Tim are about even if they stay healthy all year - Doc PROBABLY has the better overall year, but its not by much.
Urban Cohorts wrote:I wouldn't accept this deal...
If you are in a keeper league AND rebuilding, then I would accept because of Upton and his age/skill profile.
Ellsbury = Upton (though I prefer Upton myself)
The real issue-
Halladay >>> Lincecum
Lincecum has been on a 3 year decline in both K/9 and BB/9. He had a poor 2nd half in 2011 by ace standards. Those trends scare me, especially when Timmy is at an age in which he should be improving. Now if you were offered say Greinke or Price, I'd be a lot more comfortable with the deal.
thatguysound wrote:How does the rest of your rotation look?
Ellsbury isn't going to get much better - the only thing he has for sure over Upton is the SB. Upton is going to keep improving - and he has HR and RBI over Ellsbury. AVG and R are going to be about even. I have no problem with Ellsbury being the better player for this year, maybe. But in 2013? And 2014? And 2020? I doubt it.
Doc isn't going to get much better, which is good - he's phenomenal. But he's not >>> than Tim. He's > better. Tim struggled a bit, it's true, but still had a real good season last year. Even his big down year was better than most. In a keeper league, the difference between Doc and Tim is going to stay pretty close as Doc gets older. The difference between Ellsbury and Upton will only increase in Upton's favor.
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