HOOTIE wrote:His career 7.4% hr/fb ratio isn't sustainable. 9-10 is average.
His career .280 babip isn't either imo.
Maybe he can be a 4 era guy, but just because he has a 3.40 career era, doesn't mean he will sustain that.
His K/9 is at a career low, his velocity dropped last year.
A guy who doesn't miss bats, will blow up if everything doesn't go right, (babip/strand rate, hr/fb ratio).
There are pitchers who sustain those; ratios T. Lincecum's HR/FB ratio is 7.4 over his career. You can look at those "luck" statistics and draw whatever conclusions you want. As for his velocity numbers, do you take into account injuries that cause him to miss starts are probably affecting his velocity. When healthy he's proven he can win games and post a solid ERA, heck last year he proved even when he wasn't healthy he could do it.
Player A ... .281 BAIP ... 7.2% HR/FB ratio ... average velocity app. 85.
Those are Greg Maddux's career stats, he sustained ratios just fine. You can call them "luck" statistics if you will, but until I see that sustainability stat, I don't see a 4.00+ ERA out of Jurrjens. IMO.