After taking a month to mentally digest the 2012 season my homework for 2013 begins. I know its too early to put solid values on anyone, so these are my own projected values based on what I think I will have to pay at auction.
Using the same strategy, I am targeting many of the same players for 2013. According to my projections these are the players I feel will bring back the best value for this strategy if the dollar amounts remain accurate going forward.
??? means I'm iffy on picking that player. Closers will be determined later, for now they get a budget of $15-$20 for 4 spots.
C Napoli $13??? -- Rosario option #2. Option #3 is a $1 C.
1B Dunn $7 -- I'm rooting for him to hit .199 with 40 bombs
2B Uggla $7 -- Will he continue to bat cleanup?
3B H Ramirez $26??? -- Steals at 3B is sexy. May be overpriced.
SS Desmond $11 -- I predict Desmond bats #2 by May, with Harper in the 3 hole.
OF Upton $15 -- No idea where he ends up, but he's a power/speed bank.
OF Granderson $27 -- I'll take what he did last year.
OF Heyward $23??? -- Ditto.
DH D Ortiz $8??? -- R Howard option #2
DH OF Ruggiano $1 -- I really like this kid batting #2 all year.
2B R Weeks $3 -- Assuming he hits in the #2 hole
3B Alvarez $2 -- Finished strong, I have a feeling a career year is ahead
OF C Gomez $3??? -- Bench fodder unless he takes Weeks' batting spot
SP Verlander $40
SP Kershaw $36
RP Closer 1 $7
RP Closer 2 $5
P Beachy $8???
P Bailey $7???
P Closer 3 $3
P Closer 4 $1
P Luebke $6???
P Estrada $1$260 total
The players that seem to be locks are Dunn, Uggla, Weeks, (One of Reynolds or Alvarez), BJ Upton, Ruggiano, and possibly depending on where he hits in the lineup, Carlos Gomez (hoping he hits #2). Also locked up is $20 to 4 relief slots, and a $1 SP, I'm going with Marco Estrada for now. Targeting low risk, low value, low avg, middle of the order hitters solidifies the bench and gives a base on which to build the rest of the team around. It allows for some big spending at SP and in the OF (Which aims to make up the small R/RBI deficiencies while also addressing steals).
More money is spent on the pitching budget for two reasons. The first one being I need to dominate all five pitching categories and it's very hard to do that without at least two big name pitchers. The other reason is because if I distribute my money wisely, I end up paying for 4 hitting categories instead of 5, so there is naturally more money left over in the budget for pitching if I target the correct hitters.
The average team allocates $180 to hitting, coming to $18 per hitter, or $3.6 per category per player. With this logic I should spend $14.4 per hitter since I won't pay for BA, which works out to $144.
On the pitching side, it looks like Medlen pitched much too well to go under any radars. Luebke and Beachy may be forgotten about, if they are under $10 and healthy I'll probably grab both and hope one has a big year. If not, H Bailey, Morrow, Scherzer, Harvey, Fister and Carpenter may come at good values too. The $10 pitching tier will have a lot of solid options to choose from, much like last year.
The potential $1 pitchers to keep an eye on are Marco Estrada, any Oakland A's SP, David Phelps, possibly Michael Pineda if he's looking good in the spring, and Steve Johnson.
I'll happily grab Verlander and Kershaw once again if their prices don't get too crazy. Strasburg will be my plan B if I lose a bid. After I land 2 top pitchers I'll dig for value and hope I make good choices again.
In a perfect world, every hitter on my team should be a fixture in the 2-5 spots of a team's lineup. The only exception would be a bench player used for a SB boost or lineup flexibility (E Cabrera, Bonifacio are good targets)
I try and leave about $10 of wiggle room and adjust as the draft progresses. If I find I have $35 left of target players and $45 left to spend, I may go for a guy like Harvey or Darvish instead of Bailey and use a few extra bucks to land a closer I am more comfortable with.
When Yahoo comes out with their default prices I'll see how far off I am with my projections.
Comments are welcome
Last edited by Izenhart on Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:03 am, edited 1 time in total.