Maris09 wrote:What makes his '10 a fluke and not his '11? I know his K rate in '10 wasn't very good, but like you pointed out it did improve last year. Factor in the move to the NL and getting to face pitchers, I could see that uptick continuing.
Again I am not very high on the guy, really only giving him thought because of how late he is going, but Cahill is still a very very young pitcher (23 or 24 I think). Hard to think he doesn't have any upside. I'd say he definitely does for where he's going in drafts.
Guys with a 56% groundball rate and a BABIP of .236 just don't happen, the peripherals behind the stats just made no sense.
If the K rate bumps up a little and throws a few extra innings he'll K 160 or so. that doesn't hurt you unless you're playing in a league with innings limits. Most projections have him with around a 1.30 WHIP instead of last year's 1.46. and he should be perfect for Chase Field so he'll actually see the benefit of moving to the NL West with the awful offenses and friendly ballparks on the road.
Sure, if it bumps up. But it is more likely that it regresses towards his career level and the move to the NL just puts him back around 6 k/9 and that isn't very helpful.