Ender wrote:This is just an absurdly long winded post about guys you aren't likely to find me owning because they are going to0 early. Keeping this to the first 7ish rounds or so since the draftable range of players is so huge after that point.
1. Miguel Cabrera - 3B is just not shallow enough for the position to play a large role here. He has never produced top 4 value and has only once reached top 5 because the lack of SB just kills his top end value. Last year he earned almost $20 less than Kemp to give you an idea of the huge gap created here. I would much rather take Braun, Kemp or Pujols than Cabrera at #1.
2. Troy Tulowitski - SS is not nearly as shallow as people make it out to be. Positional scarcity should almost never be why you take someone in the 1st round in the first place, get your value early. Add the injury risk, the collapse rate of MI, the fact he isn't stealing much anymore and the mediocre lineup and I just hate this pick at #5.
3. Jose Bautista - He is a great real player but I think he honestly is more of a .270 hitter and as he ages his SB are going to go away. The Blue Jays don't have the OBP in front of him or the SLG behind him to make him put up elite R or RBI either. He was not a top 10 player last year in what should be considered his upside at this point.
4. Early pitchers - I will just clump these guys together. The injury risk is too high, the values later on are too high and ERA/WHIP/W are just too random to take a pitcher in the 1st round. Kershaw's injury risk is huge so he is particularly a bad risk, Verlander's final stats are flukey and he has a horrible defense behind him. If you have to take a pitcher in the top 15 at least make it Halladay who only has age based risks.
5. Mike Stanton - I absolutely love this guy but he is being over drafted. He has the skillset of a .250 hitter and there is a strong chance he doesn't hit 40+ HR as expected given his contact problems vs RHP. He is just way too risky to be taken early 2nd round where he is going, I've even seen him taken late 1st round.
6. 2nd tier 3B - Almost all of these guys have major risks that aren't showing up in their draft position. I'd rather go with ARod or Aramis 2 rounds later than reach for Zimmerman or Youkilis who are major injury risks or Sandoval who seems to have his weight issues again this year.
7. Early C - Taking a C in the first 5 rounds is nothing but downside, it is just horrible in a 1 C league, in a 2 C league it is just a calculated risk.
8. Jose Reyes - I mean seriously? He isn't healthy his speed is failing him some and he has always been a 2 stat guy, taking this guy in the middle of the 2nd round is horrible.
9. Zach Greinke - Man I love this guy, probably my favorite pitcher in baseball and I'm a Brewer fan which just reinforces it. I think last year was a complete fluke and he is a legitimate candidate for the Cy Young, but come on taking him in the 3rd round just kills all the upside. At that point he has to put up a CY type season to be worth it.
10. Brett Lawrie - He has tons of warts in his game, taking him over reliable 25 HR, 100 RBI guys is insane.
11. Eric Hosmer - Yeah good luck with that, mediocre lineup, stats that aren't supported by skills. A couple years from now I buy him but taking him in the 3rd or 4th round at 1B is insane.
12. Mark Reynolds - AVG is underrated. It won't surprise me if he loses his job completely. Yeah I'm not taking him in the 5th round.
13. Alex Gordon - No huge issue with him, just think he is going about 10-15 spots too early for OF. The AVG was mostly a fluke, the SB isn't really for real and the power was probably the top end. I expect a step back and not a step forward. Every single draft I've done mock or real has had Gordon go 3 rounds before I'd even consider him.
Forgive me for #1 but the rest was pretty spot on~. Not trying to give you a 'I told you so' post but I think it is incredibly important to evaluate your own opinions going into the next season to see if your logic is valid.