I disagree with Tulo, I've done about 5 mock drafts on ESPN and he's gone 9, 9, 10,11 and 13
I am absolutely fine with him there. I've never seen him last past pick #5 and I've seen him taken #3 a couple of times.
I will add to my post that obviously it depends on the results I have personally seen in drafts. Bautista and Tulo are going in the top 5 in every single draft I've been in and a lot of times they have gone in the top 3. If either are slipping to pick 7+ in your drafts I don't have any problems with them. They are 1st round picks, just not the sure fire top tier imo.
say you have 5th overall pick and Pujols, Kemp, Votto, Braun, are off the board. who are you taking?
now say you have the 8th pick, and all those guys are gone, plus AGon, Cano, and MCab. now who do you take?
With that 5th pick in a 5 OF league I'd probably take Upton, Cargo or Adrian Gonzalez. With the 8th pick I'm ok with Tulo at that point though I'd still personally rather have Utpon/Cargo. Cargo has the same risks as Tulo with more upside and that is with a $3 boost to Tulo for positional scarcity which I don't believe in drafting for in the first round. There is this perception that Tulo is a lock for .300, 100/30/100 when that has really been his ceiling so far and he isn't a lock for 10 SB anymore.
Do you honestly think anyone is drafting Bautista for his SB?
They are integral part of why he is an early 1st round pick, no you don't pick him for the SB but throwing in 8 SB a year certainly inflates this type of players value. The same reason everyone drafts Votto earlier than Adrian Gonzalez. Like I said last year is probably the best you can expect from him imo and he wasn't a top 10 player, he should be falling to the late 1st round from time to time but I never see him last past #5.
Also disagree with not taking a catcher in the first 5 rounds. If Napoli falls to me in the 4th-5th rounds, I'm taking him in a heartbeat
I agree with this for sure. I was talking more where they are actually taken. Napoli is gone by the early 3rd round and it is just too early. These guys I will draft but they have to fall a full round later than they typically go to make them a value.
As for my Hosmer post, pretend I said Lawrie instead of Hosmer. I actually don't hate where Hosmer is going as much since the middle ranks of 1B are so terrible. I was originally going to include both of them and I pulled the wrong one out of the discussion. Lawrie is being overdrafted, Hosmer is being aggressively drafted which is more acceptable but risky.