Pogotheostrich wrote:GardnerRunsRampant wrote:Pogotheostrich wrote:I'm kind of shocked no one is arguing for Tulo. He is head and shoulds above a horrible SS class. I could see him being the best fantasy player pretty easily.
I draft based on who the numbers say will provide the best production in the current year. That said, I value Tulo 10th, 12th, and 9th best overall among hitters in my 3 leagues (see above for scoring categories) with his best rating being in the 7x7 league. At his current MDP of 4.9 I'll take someone better. Sure, SS is thin, but don't use that to reach for a player before his value says to be taken. You might gain an edge over your competitors in the SS category, but you'll be throw that edge out the window by missing out on the extra value you could have gotten in picking a better player.
Position scarcity and opportunity cost have to enter into it. If you have a catcher and a 1B who you project to have the same numbers you take the catcher everytime. You have to evaulate the position along with the numbers.
I take the projections and estimate how much value relative to the population, each player is going to provide in each scoring category, then I add those values up to get an overall value. During the draft, I use those totals as a basis, and also keep track of the total value I am acquiring in each category. As the draft goes on, I can see how well I'm stacking up against my competitors in each category.
I also look to MDP, and how other players are drafting, to get an idea of who I can wait to draft until a later round, etc to get the most value out of each pick. Positional scarcity comes into play of course, but I do not care about that until I am forced to. At which point, I try to have a bank of players at lower MDP's that I can count on being available later in most drafts that I am comfortable rostering. I believe many people place too much emphasis on positional scarcity too early in drafts and lose value in those first few rounds.