Return to Baseball Leftovers

Jeremy Hellickson-Caveat Emptor

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Jeremy Hellickson-Caveat Emptor

Postby abrunn11 » Tue Feb 14, 2012 5:24 pm

This guy was a saber-metric anomaly in 2011. Sure he had a 2.95 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, but how did he achieve that?

The main reason for his low ERA and WHIP can be attributed to his .223 BABIP, which is not only absurd, but it is unsustainable. Couple that with the fact that he had a 35% ground ball rate, which was the 5th lowest of the 94 starting pitchers that I charted, and a 5.57 K/9IP, which put him in the bottom 25% of the same 94 SP's, and you have yourself a ticking time bomb on your hands.
Image
abrunn11
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 426
(Past Year: -27)
Joined: 24 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Jeremy Hellickson-Caveat Emptor

Postby J35J » Tue Feb 14, 2012 6:04 pm

abrunn11 wrote:This guy was a saber-metric anomaly in 2011. Sure he had a 2.95 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, but how did he achieve that?

The main reason for his low ERA and WHIP can be attributed to his .223 BABIP, which is not only absurd, but it is unsustainable. Couple that with the fact that he had a 35% ground ball rate, which was the 5th lowest of the 94 starting pitchers that I charted, and a 5.57 K/9IP, which put him in the bottom 25% of the same 94 SP's, and you have yourself a ticking time bomb on your hands.


He's better than a ticking time bomb but I haven't seen him get drafted overly high really either...I know I have him in the 30-40th SP range so I don't think many people expect him to be a sub 3ERA guy.
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10377
(Past Year: -42)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Jeremy Hellickson-Caveat Emptor

Postby Ehlana » Tue Feb 14, 2012 6:39 pm

I'd rather let pitchers in the AL east be someone else's problem. I mean everyone has a price point or draft position where they're worth the chance, but by and large AL east pitchers are not worth it.
(\ _ /)
(='.'=)
(")_(")*
Ehlana
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 190
(Past Year: 5)
Joined: 20 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Winnipeg MB Canada

Re: Jeremy Hellickson-Caveat Emptor

Postby reiser » Tue Feb 14, 2012 6:55 pm

abrunn11 wrote:This guy was a saber-metric anomaly in 2011. Sure he had a 2.95 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, but how did he achieve that?

The main reason for his low ERA and WHIP can be attributed to his .223 BABIP, which is not only absurd, but it is unsustainable. Couple that with the fact that he had a 35% ground ball rate, which was the 5th lowest of the 94 starting pitchers that I charted, and a 5.57 K/9IP, which put him in the bottom 25% of the same 94 SP's, and you have yourself a ticking time bomb on your hands.


I don't know, why is it so unsustainable? He has one of the best defense's in the majors playing behind him.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &sort=19,d
reiser
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 640
(Past Year: -1)
Joined: 17 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Jeremy Hellickson-Caveat Emptor

Postby Ender » Tue Feb 14, 2012 8:45 pm

Absolutely elite closers can maintain a .245 or so BABIP, anything under that is almost certainly a fluke. The one thing he does have going for him is the high FB% which should lead to a low BABIP so that number isn't nearly as off as it looks. However the drop in K% and the fact that the ERA was heavily built by an 82% strand rate does make me want to stay away from him. Seems like most owners agree as he isn't going all that early.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7705
(Past Year: -28)
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Jeremy Hellickson-Caveat Emptor

Postby kab21 » Tue Feb 14, 2012 8:51 pm

Ehlana wrote:I'd rather let pitchers in the AL east be someone else's problem. I mean everyone has a price point or draft position where they're worth the chance, but by and large AL east pitchers are not worth it.


I'll take a good pitcher regardless. CC, Lester, Price, Beckett types will be on my teams if they fall at all. If they don't there are a lot of pitchers to draft in rds 5-10 that I like.
My website - The World Is Not That Big
kab21
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 5372
(Past Year: 108)
Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Jeremy Hellickson-Caveat Emptor

Postby rjforlife » Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:32 pm

The guy is 24 years old. No one is going to propose that he may get better this year by improving his K rate or BB rate or whatever and actually put up another good season? It was his first season in the majors and he performed well. I really like him in the spot he is going this season, even if his ERA goes up a bit.
Goldy is King.
rjforlife
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 7493
(Past Year: 247)
Joined: 25 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Vegas Baby

Re: Jeremy Hellickson-Caveat Emptor

Postby IndyPostman » Tue Feb 14, 2012 10:58 pm

I agree that BABIP won't be repeated, but that can be counteracted by getting his K rate up close to what he had in the minors. I'm not saying we can expect Hellboy to have a K/9 in the 10 range like he did in AAA, but if gets it up over 7 he's going to be just fine, especially with where he's being drafted.

Dude is young and has excellent upside. Top 25 SP by 2013.
IndyPostman
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 18
Joined: 5 Feb 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Jeremy Hellickson-Caveat Emptor

Postby Verminator » Tue Feb 14, 2012 11:18 pm

I agree with everyone else...

1. Growth in K rate will offset BABIP regression (Solid SwStk% indicates a potential growth in Ks)
2. High FB% in a pitchers park for half his games will protect BABIP and WHIP
3. Other Rays pitchers can sustain low BABIPs due to defense (Shields in 2010 notwithstanding). Price's BABIP the last three years have been 268, 270, 281.
4. The draft ranks for Hellickson already anticipate a regression in ERA.

3.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 170 Ks sounds very feasible to me.

I also noticed that Hellickson sustained a consistently low strand rate in the minors... 80% neighborhood typically. I wonder if that is a skill as well??
When it comes to exaggerating, I always give 110%.
Verminator
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 404
(Past Year: -3)
Joined: 27 Oct 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Gurnee, Illinois

Re: Jeremy Hellickson-Caveat Emptor

Postby silverZ » Wed Feb 15, 2012 1:10 pm

He always had great k/bb ratios in the minors, I don't see why he couldn't continue to improve his k/bb stats this season to offset the ERA hit he's going to take with a higher BABIP. With that said I think his ADP of 125ish shows that nobody thinks he will post a sub 3.00 ERA this season. I think he's being valued right where he should be.
Here's the pitch on the way, a swing and a belt! Left field! Way back! BLUE JAYS WIN!
silverZ
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 2946
(Past Year: 48)
Joined: 29 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Toronto


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron