MaudDib wrote:I guess I should clarify these comments more along the lines of unownable for me. Bottom line, Burnett has had a 5+ ERA for the past two season and a WHIP over 1.4 the past three. Maybe the underlining statistics show a player that should have better numbers but if he doesn't, your team isn't going to be competitive if you star a pitcher that gives you a 5+ ERA.
Again maybe he can do something but he is also 36 years old which again cuts away most of the improvement you might see. At the end of the draft, there are a lot better players with more upside than Burnett will give you. He is more likely a guy that I would pick up off the WW for one start and then drop him.
He is actually 35 years old. Not that it makes a ton of difference.
For me, I'm throwing his past ERAs out the window. Moving out of Yankee stadium will result in fewer HRs allowed (when they changed the dimensions, his HR rate flew threw the roof). Assuming an average HR/FB rate that he had prior to 2011, he should do a lot better ERA wise. His xFIP has averaged under 4.00 for the last 5 seasons, so I think leaving Yankee stadium will bring his stats closer to that number.
His K rate has held up for 4 of the past 5 seasons. The year it didn't (2010), he was absolutely horrible. But last year he was in line with his 2007-2009 K rate and produced the same underlying stats. I'll give you the 5+ ERA in 2010 was due to terrible pitching, but the 5+ ERA in 2011 was due to bad luck. And I tend to think that luck usually works itself out over time. So if he does move to PIT, his ERA staying at 5+ would be unlikely. His WHIP is high, but a move to the NL West is going to bring that down some. Less talented hitters and he gets to throw to pitchers. Now if the K rate stayed the same as 2010, then yeah, he would be totally done.
So if he does indeed go to the Pirates (and not the Reds or one of the other rumored teams), I'm willing to take a gamble on him.