Right now, these are mostly driven by the projections for the three rate stats, K/9, WHIP, and ERA. A lot of times, I'll have some little known guys ranked highly in this list, because rotochamps or CAIRO or one of the other early projection systems has given them a very good projection. Carreno's a good example of this, as rotochamps has a good projection for him and is skewing the numbers since he's not in Fangraphs Fans projection or Bill James.
Two things will push him down. More projections will balance rotochamps, and I'll get around to assessing opportunities to earn wins, saves, and holds. I keep doing it this way because it alerts me to potential sleepers out there. So, what you are doing is exactly what I try to do--identify those guys with potential to contribute because of good K, low BB, low HRs which will lead to low WHIP and ERA, and then adjust for opportunities. Guys like Reed will move up 1-2 tiers. Guys like Carreno will move down 1-2 tiers (or more).
It really helps if people point out guys like Reed, too, as well as let me know anything they see on roles, particularly 8th and 7th inning. I try to follow all of that, but can't get to all 30 teams on a regular basis (and still prep for my own draft!).
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."