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machine3 wrote:If it was easy to predict who was going to be a stud, it wouldn't be nearly as much fun.
MasterX1918 wrote:machine3 wrote:If it was easy to predict who was going to be a stud, it wouldn't be nearly as much fun.
this, all prospects have inherent risk. The way I look at it its sort of like playing the stock market, sometimes even the "sure things" can bust while others can come out of nowhere and become huge gainers. BA seems to be very good at predicting success though, rarely has a guy in their top 10 been a bust.
rib217 wrote: I plan on staying away from Darvish; perhaps I am wrong but it certainly seems like every big name (Ace pitchers) coming out of Japan has not come close to living up to the hype.
How about 1999, going a bit further back: JD Drew (#1 again, disappointing), Rick Ankiel (total pitching bust), Bruce Chen (disappointing), Michael Barrett (total bust), Ryan Anderson (total bust), Pablo Ozuna (total bust), Ruben Mateo (total bust), Matt Clement (total bust). And this year the two they hit on were Eric Chavez and Brad Penny. (NOTE, its not like this year was devoid of talent, #12-14 are Halladay, Berkman, Beltran)
Ender wrote:The fact they got Halladay, Berkman and Beltran into the top 15 is a positive, not a negative. Also I think your opinion of a total bust is too strong. Michael Barrett was a very good C, he just had his career end early because of injuries. Rick Ankiel had a very good start as a pitcher, he is sort of a unique case in general. JD Drew has played fantastic baseball when healthy, he is another one derailed by injuries. Matt Clement was a very decent pitcher in his prime as well but again he got hurt.
I do think the top lists put too much stock in 'tools' though and that tends to cause some problems. You can have all the tools in the world but if your fundamentals are bad you are going to struggle to succeed.
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