Ender wrote:You can usually pick out the sure thing pitching prospects if you are just careful. Edwin Jackson is an example of someone that was in no way a sure thing, he had an ERA over 4 in the minors and a WHIP over 1.35. Same with Andrew Miller who was erratic in the minors, Hochevar was good but not dominant.. Compare most of these 'busted' prospects to someone like Gallardo or Lincecum in the minors and you see the big difference. Truth is any pitcher who throws hard gets the label prospect, for fantasy purposes this is not the type of player you want. You want a polished prospect who has displayed elite skills in the minors if you are going to be drafting a rookie pitcher.
A lot of times these guys are just being pushed through the minors at a young age and they end up being good in the majors but from a fantasy baseball perspective you don't want to take a risk on these types. Stick with the guys who absolutely dominated in the minors and barring a major injury they almost always pan out to be at least decent in the majors.
Counter example: Yusmeiro Petit.