Goatrider wrote:Don't do drafts, only auction and NL league specific at that. As keepers, my general rule is to never keep a pitcher until after 1 and a half seasons. Somewhere around 15 starts in rookie season, then full season, then keep. Unless he's Strasburg as others have alluded to. However, right now I am debating a cheap Vance Worley as a keeper (but that is mainly due to being part of Phillies rotation). And then during auctions, I will only target second year players on a serious sleeper chance (i.e. Jose Altuve types in NL only as a MI and for around $3-4.) Last year got Mike Morse for $8 after a successful second half in 2010. But I keep second year players to 2 to 3 spots on a 29 man roster. Year three is my magic number.
I completely agree on your premise of when to keep players. I also agree that a player like Strasburg and Hosmer break the rules. However, in our 16-team mock draft, Strasburg was selected in the 5th round behind Lawrie, Jennings and Hosmer (in that order).
As for Vance Worley...
He was one of the players in my article; "Santa Claus is a Lie, and so are These 3 Players"
Being a huge Phillies fan, I saw numerous starts by the Vanimal and I am concerned about a regressions in 2012. While Worley posted a solid K/9 ratio of 8.13 during his rookie year, the vast majority of the strikeouts were by catching batters napping. Meaning, Vance Worley would throw change-ups and sliders at different counts, thus making his 90 mph fastball with two strikes a surprising pitch when located well. While I do like the change in approach, the in-depth scouting reports will limit the number of batters fooled in 2012.
As much as I would not keep him, I also do not think he will be as bad as Kyle Kendrick was during his second season.