Several people would rather take their chances with Bumgardner or Strasburg in 2012. This leaves me quite puzzled...
Not only did Kennedy post career best numbers last year, but he improved almost every facet of his game. From an earlier post-
Urban Cohorts wrote:Kennedy improved in almost every aspect this season. His K/9 increased, his BB/9 dramatically decreased, his GB% went up, he allowed less HRs, and he logged more innings without getting injured. And a "luck stat"- (BABIP) went up from .256 (2010) to .270 (2011), so I don't see his breakout due to luck. His strand rate was also about average. And to top things off, he is going to be 27! Prime years ahead.
The only downside was his record. He obviously has a slim chance of repeating a 21-4 W-L record. But this guy can pitch.
I do understand that he did outperform some of his underlying stats, and was a tad lucky. Yet he has done this two years in a row now. Even if things do average out, Kennedy ends up with an ERA in the low/mid 3s. And if his skills continue to improve, that would give him at least another year similar to 2011. And if luck is on his side (for a 3rd year in a row), then he could be on the verge of being a top 5 fantasy SP (assuming a decent W/L record).
Maybe I'm missing something here, or putting too much faith in a 27 year old taking another step forward, but Bumgardner and Strasburg over him in 2012? Really? Especially with an IP cap on Strasburg. He will have a higher K/9, but probably less totals Ks, due to Kennedy pitching 25+ innings over him.
Thoughts anyone? Am I crazy here in wanting Kennedy to be the Ace of my squad (and probably at a discount because of his 2011 W-L record)?