Urban Cohorts wrote:lane_anasazi2 wrote:Brainstorm wrote:How do you justify Bumgarner as a 14th over Kennedy as a 15th? I know Bumgarner had a good year and there's some upside, but Kennedy is already there.
I justify it like this: Kennedy is a soft-tosser who out-performed his peripherals. That isn't the mark of death that some people make it out to be, but it's not a recipe for long term fantasy success. Bumgarner, on the other hand, has elite upside and his stats are being masked by a very poor start to 2011. Look at his first half/second half splits.
Kennedy is 27. While it's certainly possible, it doesn't seem likely given his age and skillset that he'll make a big jump in performance. Bumgarner is 22. It might not happen in 2012, but Bumgarner has elite, Kershaw-level upside.
He's younger, more talented, pitches in a better park, is a better bet to make a big jump in performance, has a better minor league pedigree... I don't see how this is even a question.
Yes, Kennedy did outperform some peripherals, but he also improved in every controllable aspect of his game- better K/9, more IP, better hitting behind him, dramatically decreased his BB/9, increased his GB%, lowered his HR/FB, proved he can stay healthy, and to top things off, is going to be in his prime. If he continues to improve those metrics, at the very least he replicates 2011, as his increased skills would cancel out any "luck" based stat regression. But Kennedy has outperformed his peripherals for 2 straight 200+ inning seasons now. If he does that again, and improves his skill set, he may be even better in 2012.
But since it is a keeper league, can't fault people for going with Bumgardner. More long term value there. Even though Kennedy should outproduce him in 2012 IMO.
Bumgarner outperformed kennedy in every single one of those controllable aspects, plays in a better park, and is 5 years younger. He was better than kennedy in 2011 and is better than kennedy now.