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Pochucker wrote:Well Im not going to fight the battle again, however I will say that I will always be of the opinion that many times hard work and intelligence can overcome what many consider "luck"
Sticky Spice wrote:Pochucker wrote:By the same token you could have second worst stats every week and win --but we both know odds of either happening are astronomical . So luck for the most part is same for all over a full season.
As far as looking back and seeing what you could have done better --thats how you learn and get better. Those who write failures off to luck will never be in the top echelon.
I have to disagree with a lot of this, Pochucker. First, I would say that luck is not the same for all over a full season. I know a six-month season is a long time, but it doesn't necessarily mean it's long enough to even things out. Some teams just get the injury bug or dramatic dropoffs or "out of nowheres" that nobody could have reasonably saw coming.
Second, yes, there are always times where you can look back and see you could have done some things better, but you also have to weigh that against could you REASONABLY have been able to make that decision at the time? Was there really evidence at the time showing you that you should have done X? I usually find that at least half of my mistakes were correct strategy at the time based on what I knew then. In poker, I wouldn't change a thing. Just keep making decisions based on correct strategy and over the course of time I will come out ahead. In poker, math always knows the correct strategy. But when you're dealing with humans instead of cards you're not dealing with a full deck, and math can only assure you of a championship on paper.
Finally, in regards to luck, I think it has to do with what league you're in and whether or not you believe there is a "wall" you hit when studying fantasy baseball. If you are in a competitive league full of knowledgeable owners who are all active, have all done their homework, and all have internet access, then why is it that a majority of the teams will fail? Because only one can win. We are now in an era of people who have grown up playing fantasy sports, are more knowledgeable than they've been in the past, and when they're lazy they can rely on an extraordinary amount of real-time fantasy assistance from the internet. So leagues that are this competitive are not uncommon. In the past it was the team that was most active that had the advantage, but now it's not unusual for all owners to be extremely active.
If you believe in "the wall" then you also believe you can only be so prepared, and that probably most of your league is equally prepared. In this sense, I think it's okay to chalk up your losses to luck. In fact, in some ways I have become a better owner once I realized the hand that luck played in fantasy sports. It allowed me to take a step back and make more patient and even-keeled roster management decisions. But it's not like we're throwing our hands up in the air, saying it's all about luck, and that strategy and study aren't still powerful mechanisms. Coming to luck realization puts many of us in the same place in their fantasy career that Shandler is - we recognize the role of luck and the fallacy of stat projections. We now believe that looking at playing time, injury history, in-draft salary management, etc. is what will put us ahead. If we are right, then it was our realization about luck that made us better owners.
It's a little relieving to come to this realization and turn some of that pressure we put on ourselves over to Lady Luck. There's only so much we can do. Have fun with it. Baseball players are humans, and you can never forecast humans accurately. We have moods and personal relationships, our bodies and health fail, we get distracted, etc. and when your guy steps on the mound or in the batters box we have no idea what's he's taking out there with him that won't show up on even the geekiest stat sheet.
Pochucker wrote:More like thats why I dont play fantasy football. The real and fantasy game are so different from baseball its not funny. So as I stated previously if I don't feel I have enough control I wont play it.
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