LARS929 wrote:Why won't it happen at higher levels? I understand it won't happen at the same level, but there is no reason to just say it won't. He will have a very high babip in his career; he's shown great plate discipline, and really he is hitting better than he's gotten credit for. His bat grade has been pretty solid, so don't just assume he can't hit because he is fast. His huge knock is his defense, which will make him go to center field, and be crazy fast there.
I see him at a .290/.380/.380 with 80-100 sbs in his prime. He will be the best leadoff hitter in baseball.
Why won't it happen in higher level? Because Cal league defenders are really bad compared to MLB defenders and some of his "hits" are really just plays that A ball defender cannot make. He still strikes out a bit too much(especially lately) for a no power guy and that type of players gets taken advantage of when they move further up the chain. His BABIP will probably always be high compared to the rest, but he's not going to maintain a .400 BABIP like he did in the Cal league(Bakersfield is also a great home park in a great hitting league). He'll probably settle around a .350 at most(5 qualified MLB player has BABIP higher than .350 in the last 5 years). A .270 hitters is by no means bad, it's probably even a little bit above average, you act like I'm knocking him. A .270 hitter with a ton of steals is plenty valuable. One thing I definitely don't see is him drawing enough walk to have an isolated OBP of 90 points as you suggested. Guys with no power just don't get pitched around like that in the majors and I don't see anybody projecting him to even hit for a hint of power.
And I'm not "assuming" that he can't hit, I've seen him a few times, ton of sharp ground ball singles, can hit for doubles sometimes but it was the Cal league so I'm taking the power with a huge grain of salt. He's okay, I'm just keeping the expectations realistic.