Most Accurate MLB Experts Past 4 Years
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Padsin05 wrote:lets just say it rounds up to 0
bigken117 wrote:Padsin05 wrote:lets just say it rounds up to 0
FYP, I think they're lower than that.
Just go with 1/12 each round, or 8% in the first round, and keep multiplying 1/12 22 more times, which in excel is 1.50949E-25. So yeah...
Padsin05 wrote:bigken117 wrote:Padsin05 wrote:lets just say it rounds up to 0
FYP, I think they're lower than that.
Just go with 1/12 each round, or 8% in the first round, and keep multiplying 1/12 22 more times, which in excel is 1.50949E-25. So yeah...
acutally mathematically it isnt 1/12 each round. Your scenario assumes every player being drafted in the same rounds of every draft.
since there are 30 teams x25 per roster, the true odds are 1/750 per player per pick
so the math is 1/750*1/738*1/726 etc, repeating downward 23 times (subtracting 12 players each time that other teams picked)
mathmatically speaking the odds of me and another person taking the same player with the first pick overall is 1/750 or .133%
so basically the "True odds" of teams having the same team is 0
Skin Blues wrote:Padsin05 wrote:bigken117 wrote:
FYP, I think they're lower than that.
Just go with 1/12 each round, or 8% in the first round, and keep multiplying 1/12 22 more times, which in excel is 1.50949E-25. So yeah...
acutally mathematically it isnt 1/12 each round. Your scenario assumes every player being drafted in the same rounds of every draft.
since there are 30 teams x25 per roster, the true odds are 1/750 per player per pick
so the math is 1/750*1/738*1/726 etc, repeating downward 23 times (subtracting 12 players each time that other teams picked)
mathmatically speaking the odds of me and another person taking the same player with the first pick overall is 1/750 or .133%
so basically the "True odds" of teams having the same team is 0
It's not this simple. There are also position limitations, likelihood of being drafted in certain rounds (ie: extremely likely the teams are identical if they both pick first, second, or third overall, so it's definitely not 1/750). Also they don't need to pick the same players in the same round on order to end up with the same team.
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