I own both Cain and Ogando, so here's what I have to say
-Cain has been a hard luck loser. I anticipate wins will be tougher with Posey out for the year, so keep that in mind.
-Lilly will find a groove and win games again, so that solves that.
-I don't think Rios will break out of his slump in a big way. He's not Corey Hart.
-If the Rangers stay in the hunt and it's close, I don't think they cap Ogando. Webb is no guarantee to even make it back @ 100% and Hunter is still rehabbing his groin. Keep Hunter in mind if he is available on your f/a wire as well as Randy Wells.
-Baker's stats are too hard to ignore. I think he is poised for a breakout year of sorts.
-Norris will still be with the Astros after it is all said and done. The K-9 rate is nice, but his team surrounding him is susceptible to streaks.
-Jansen is going to play "musical chairs" in the bullpen with the closer job, but he will get opportunities to get saves and earn their trust.
All of that being said, I like the second trade a little better. Lee is a stud and will get you tons of K's and potentially DD wins. Plus, the Phillies are starting to hit again. I think Kemp will sustain his hitting, but not @ a rate that is too crazy. If you can sub Soriano or drop him for another OF (OF position is deep this year), I would do it. Or grab another arm instead of Soriano and drop Jansen for a starter to stream or own.