Thus the 2nd round Zito, Oswalt, Mulder, Halladay. If you choose to pass on that and further asure yourself rbi, sb, and hr's then you need to look at nabbing consecutive young gambles ie.. rodrigo lopez, Johan Santana, Brian Lawerence, and hope at least 1 takes the step this year to that next tier.
Slow down there -- you're mischaracterizing my argument altogether. My argument is this -- Zito and Oswalt are being drafted too high. That's it. Nothing more and nothing less.
Mulder and Halladay are NOT typically being drafted in the second round. I didn't say ignore pitchers until the 8th round and see what kind of mid-level stuff is left. I'm saying that there is a corp of elite guys we all know by their first names -- Randy, Curt and Pedro. After that, if I said Barry, and you didn't know we were talking about pitchers -- you'd be thinking Bonds, not Zito...
Point being -- there is a group of guys behind the Big Three who are pretty fungible for the most part, and a couple of them are being drafted too high, IMHO.
Here's the main thing -- over the last few years, it was Hudson or Mulder who got all the accolades for the A's. It's only last year that Zito suddenly became "da man". And I, at least, am not at all certain that Zito is once again going to post numbers that are *that* much better than Hudson or Mulder, or any of the rest of the guys in the second tier behind the Big Three.
My bottom line is to avoid pitching (other than the Big Three) in the first three or so rounds because it's being overvalued, and then in 4 or 5 grab whoever is around from the Mussina, Mulder, Maddux, Hallday, Hudson type group of guys. More than likely, there'll be one or more of those types left, and they will be damn near as good, maybe even better, than Zito or Oswalt.
I specifically remember, by way of example, being VERY annoyed last year when Javier Vazquez was picked up right in front of me in the 4th round. I had him as a high priority pitcher to anchor my rotation. I did want the next best pitcher I had on my board, whose name was Zito, and he did just fine for me.
Of course, by the time I took Zito, Hudson and Mulder were already gone. And I have no confidence that Zito is going to be that much better than the other two this year. All are young, top-shelf pitchers playing for the same team.
I did NOT say take Brian Lawrence as your staff ace...