What are your thoughts as to the accuracy of fangraph's Zips(RoS)?
I plugged them into my league's scoring system, and got a couple of surprises.
Have you used these projections, and what has your experience been?
Thanks for sharing...
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Tex wrote:I typically find any mathematical projections to be pretty worthless. They're too "safe" by being weighted toward averages and comparing similar players. Have any of them ever projected a bust, or just a slight regression to the mean?
Skin Blues wrote:Tex wrote:I typically find any mathematical projections to be pretty worthless. They're too "safe" by being weighted toward averages and comparing similar players. Have any of them ever projected a bust, or just a slight regression to the mean?
Have you found any projection maker that can accurately predict busts? I guarantee if you found a place that had accurate projections for what Hanley Ramirez is doing right now, it would be absolutely terrible for the other 99.9% of players. The point isn't to predict outliers, obviously.
Tex wrote:That's my point. I don't see what people find so fascinating about projections when they don't tell you anything new. I'd rather see someone try to mathematically predict the booms/busts. That's at least entertaining and no more worthless than the current projections out there.
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