I was having a discussion with another league mate who thought it was absolutely rediculous that I spent $30 FAB dollars to pick up Hosmer. I said because if he breaks out, and I didn't get him, I will never have a chance to own him. (12-team league, keep 4).
his response was, "that's rediculous. it's only on rare occasions that players are good enough to be keepers in their rookie year." I said, "yeah, but when you do strike gold, which is about one player per year, you get a keeper for life." he said, "theres no way it's as high as one player per year." I started naming players. and looking up their rookie year stats.
Pujols - 37 hr's, 112 runs, 130 RBI, 1.013 OPS
Hanley - 17 hr, 51 SB, .833 ops,
Tulo - 24 hr, .838 OPS,
Longoria - 122 games, 27 hr's, 85 rbi, .874 OPS
Wright - 69 games, 14 hr's, 6 sb, .857 ops
Votto - 151 games. 24 hr, 7 sb, .874 ops
Ryan Braun - 113 games, 34 hr, 15 sb, 1.004 ops
Prince Fielder - 28 hrs, .830 ops
Ryan Howard - 88 games, 22 hrs, 63 rbi, .923 ops
josh Hamilton - 90 games, 19 hr's, .922 ops
my thoughts are that these players put up numbers good enough in their rookie year that their owner very well could have recognized what they had on their hands and kept them in a 12-team - 4 keeper league, thus never giving anyone else in the league a chance to own them.
this is a large majority of the top 15 hitters right now. notable exceptions being - Miggy, A-gonz, crawford, bautista, cargo..
also, it's hard to guess which ones are gonna break out. for every Ryan Braun there is a Delmon Young.. but you've got to get them immediately when they do.
i don't know, it was kind of a rambling discussion and I am not entirely sure of the point.. but it seemed interesting how good the elite players in the league tend to be immediately.. though i would bring it here to see if anyone had any further thoughts..
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