bleach168 wrote:When the median batting average is .250 and the median fantasy team's batting average is .265, Granderson is no longer a liability in that category.
Sorry, but I disagree with this slightly.(Note: I am going to use average instead of median, but the results should not differ much)
In 2010, the MLB batting average was .257. While not a perfect fantasy comparison, I took the average batting average from my 12 team (start 14 offensive players) league from last year. All teams averaged .270.
Season to date in 2011, the MLB batting average is .250. The average from my same 12 team league so far this year is .259.
Curtis Granderson's career average through the end of the 2010 season was .268. So while his 2010 batting average of .247 was definitely a liability in 2010, his overall career rate put him right in line with my league's 2010 fantasy average of .270.
In 2011, MLB real batting averages are down -2.8% (from .257 to .250). In 2011, my 12 team league's fantasy batting averages are down -4.2% (from .270 to .259). Batting averages are down this year compared to last year, no question. However, if we're going to realize that the MLB universe is down -2.8%, then we have to realize Granderson is part of that population and assume that his batting average will drop at the same rate as the rest of the population. I feel that the fundamental flaw in your statement is that you aren't assuming Granderson's average will drop like the rest of MLB. I could be wrong, but the way I read your post, you are saying that the MLB median batting average is dropping, but you're assuming Granderson's will remain constant.
If we assume Granderson's career average coming into this year (.268) drops at the real rate that MLB has dropped (-2.8%)
, then he would finish somewhere around .260 this year. Then if you compare that to what the average team in my 12 team league is hitting (.260 vs. .259), that makes him an average "batting average" hitter
However, if we assume Granderson's career average coming into this year (.268) drops at the fantasy rate defined in my league (-4.2%)
, then he would finish somewhere around .257. Then if you compare that to what the average team in my 12 team league is hitting (.257 vs. .259), that makes him a slightly less than average "batting average" hitter
I think we can all agree he's not going to hit .280 this year, which is his current rate. But unless this is a career year across the board (and not just in HR's), then I expect him to remain right in line with an average fantasy baseball batting average. In 2009 and 2010 Granderson had fairly low BABIPs leading to those putrid batting averages. His 2011 BABIP is only 10 points higher this year, but his batting average is 32 points higher than the past two years. I think his batting average is due for a freefall that you are not taking into consideration.