I sent out this offer (I'm trading Gio Gonzalez) to another manager who agreed to send me Matt Garza in return. My question to you all is, "Who wins this trade going foward this season?" I'm in a standard H2H Yahoo Public league .
The way I look at it, (if I'm analyzing the stats correctly, I'm somewhat new to advanced statistics) Gio Gonzalez has been lucky. His ERA stands at 0.47, but his FIP and xFIP are 4.19 and 4.65. His K rate is down to 6.63 from last year's 7.67. His walk rate is up to an ungodly 5.68 from last year's 4.13.
Gonzalez's rest of the season ZIPS projection: 9 W, 4.39 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 157 K
Matt Garza, on the other hand, has been unlucky to the extreme. His ERA is currently 6.27, but his FIP and xFIP are 1.21 and 1.95. His K/BB ratio is a stellar 5.00. Also, his GB% is up...which would help him on those windy days at Wrigley.
Garza's rest of the season ZIPS projection: 12 W, 3.78 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 158 K
Now, I drafted Gonzalez in the 10th round based his great spring and hoping that he could improve his command. He has the stuff to be a top 15 fantasy ace if he could ever throw strikes. But it appears that gamble will not pay off this season, as his command has been even worse. His wildness just hasn't caught up with him yet. His last start (6 BB in 6 IP with 2 WP) kind of blew my mind. In almost every updated SP ranking I've seen, Gonzalez is ranked barely to well ahead of Garza. Why is that? Given the evidence I presented, Garza should be far superior from this point forward.
In my opinion, the only way I could be considered the loser in this trade is if I didn't sell high enough on Gonzalez. Numberswise, I feel pretty good switching Garza for Gonzalez in my rotation.