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Cliff Lee and Jepsin for J. Chacin, Belt,and Mike Minor?WHIR

PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 10:56 pm
by sinicalypse
Greetings programs! This is my 14x14 20 team H2H franchise league (i.e. we keep something like 15-20+ people going into next season) and thus far in the first week of the season i'm smearing my opponent 25-2. I just took over a team this season and decided that I'm going to build for the future, looking to have a proper juggernaught in ~2-3 seasons. Therefore, I've decided to dangle Cliff Lee and see if I can get some younger kids with bright futures in a package to max out his value, since I'm not going to contend this year. I've finally gotten my prospective trade parter to offer up Jhoulys Chacin, Brandon Belt, and Mike Minor for my Cliff Lee and Kevin Jepsen. I'll list the squad here and say that it's 14x14... just about everything you can think of counts... with pitching, holds are one category as is saves and there's BB/K, K/9, H/9 ratios and just about every available category so it behooves you to assemble a crew of the best overall pitchers going forward, and here's what i've got. Keep in mind with these giant rosters there's 20 teams in the league so it's easily the deepest league i've ever played in. (k) denotes keeper from the team i took over last year.

C - Josh Thole
1B - Billy Butler (k)
2B - Neil Walker (k)
SS - tsuyoshi nishioka
3B - edwin encarnacion
IF - reid brignac
IF - danny espinosa
IF - dan johnson (who i'd promptly drop)
OF - drew stubbs
OF - juan pierre
OF - carlos gomez
Util - brad emaus
util - rick ankiel
util - mark derosa
util - matt joyce

and here's the core of my team, the pitching staff

SP - cliff lee (k)
SP - jered weaver (k)
SP - jeremy hellickson
SP - madison bumgarner
SP - matt harrison (thank you jesus)
RP - craig kimbrel
RP - aroldis chapman
RP - jose contreras
RP - vin mazzaro
P - sean burnett
P - kevin jepsen
P - michael gonzalez
P - mike dunn
P - rafael perez

bench/P - jenrry mejia
DL/P - stephen strasburg
DL/P - octavio dotel

so if i do this, next year i'm trotting out a rotation of jered weaver, jhoulys chacin, jeremy hellickon, madison bumgarner, and stephen strasburg. i'd also have brandon belt, who figures to be a nice prospect as time goes on.. he looks like he could be a .280/20/80/20 guy as time wears on... and i know his quick HR was followed by 0-11, but like, it's taken some ~10 offers/counteroffers to give up what i want.... and this way i'd give up a holds guy along with lee, but i'd also get a ready-now pitcher who can produce for me now and in the future, a bonafide prospect in mike minor (i think he's a first round draft pick, right?) and brandon belt, who'd immediately replace the hapless dan johnson. my team's offense is going to need work going forward, obviously, but it's been OMFG enough in this first week and i think with nishioka and brignac and espinosa and neil walker and billy butler i've got a good solid core going forward.

so what do y'all think? i would obviously keep all of these guys going forward into next year, so i'm looking at this trade in the long term. would you guys make it?

post a link to your thread and i'll give you my two cents. as you can tell, i'm pretty good at giving details and reasoning so i'll do my best to give you my best.

# james

Re: Cliff Lee and Jepsin for J. Chacin, Belt,and Mike Minor?

PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 11:40 pm
by OldEnglishZ
If you know you won't contend I would actually do it. Your pitching can afford it looking at your roster.

Re: Cliff Lee and Jepsin for J. Chacin, Belt,and Mike Minor?

PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2011 12:05 am
by sinicalypse
Well yeah dude, I mean, look at that offense... the guy I'm trading with, for example, was last year's champion and he has albert pujols, hanley ramirez, joe mauer, pablo sandoval, jacoby ellsbury, and then roy halladay. actually, jhoulys chacin is his #2 pitcher, why is why i'm able to gety him to trade off belt (who he shot his entire $1000 waiver budget on) and mike minor and stuff, cuz adding cliff lee to his halladay would really help his team going forward.

my offense has some up-n-comers like billy butler and neil walker... but i'm sitting on reid brignac, espinosa, and others who aren't quite there but might not get there... i really need a masher and i'm not convinced that belt is that masher, but he seems to be a .280/20/80/20 type which is a nice compliment to another .280/20/80 type guy in billy butler... in this league having depth adds up cuz you've got 3 IF positions to fill and 5 util slots....

i'm thinking that best case scanrio is jhoulys chacin is already a ~10-15 win sub-3.50 ERA high K rate pitcher who i can plug in right now and not be miles away from cliff lee territory... mike minor has the pedigree to be a future stud. and then i've got another solid bat going forward in brandon belt who can also give me some production right now, and more likely some !! production in the future... the only thing that could mess him up is if buster posey becomes more of a fulltime 1B in teh future he's the golden child, and then you wonder if belt can play the of... brandon belt, combining his A+/AA/AAA stats last year, managed .352/23/112 with 22SB across 136 games and 492 at bats. he's quickly risen from 11th round draft pick to opening day starting 1B, so that's the kind of kid you'd like to have going forward.

i remiss... i mean, if y'all look at my squad i don't think i can compete with a team that's competent with pitching and has an offense that features bonafide studs and mashers... as i said, i'm up 25-2 this week with some quick starts (i.e. neil walker has a HR and 7 RBI already) but as time wears on i don't think i have the offense to contend for a title this year. hell, if i play my cards right i think my pitching is deep enought that if jhoulys chacin can pitch even better than he did last year i'm going to be able to not lose a giant amount from cliff lee, all while adding in brandon belt and mike minor for the long term... then no matter what happens this year, next year i'm looking at a rotation of jered weaver, jhoulys chacin, jeremy hellickson, madison bumgarner, stephen strasburg, and mike minor. i think i could work with that going forward.. hell, i'm going to have to petition for 20 keepers. if i had only 15 keepers, if/when i keep all of them and craig kimbrel and chapman and mike dunn i'm only going to have room for ~5 offensive players =D

but yeah back to answering questions in other threads. sorry i'm babbling but this is a move that will affect my team for years to come so i'm going to err in favor of being thorough.

Re: Cliff Lee and Jepsin for J. Chacin, Belt,and Mike Minor?

PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2011 1:11 am
by MiggyT
You might be able to get a little more for Cliff Lee who's value is at an all-time high at the moment.

I personally like Mike Minor but see if you can't get another young SP who's already in the majors from someone else. Minor doesn't have strikeout upside despite his fluky minor league numbers. Bobby Cox suggested last year his upside was capped as an innings eater.

Chacin and Belt are a nice haul though and nearly make it worth it by themselves. Both are unproven and I would feel quite shaky giving up Cliff Lee for them, though. See if you can't pry a better deal from someone else when you dangle Cliff Lee on the table, but otherwise I would lean towards accepting this deal.

Help with mine, please:

Re: Cliff Lee and Jepsin for J. Chacin, Belt,and Mike Minor?

PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2011 2:02 am
by sinicalypse
Are we talking about the same Mike Minor? Last year between AA/AAA the guy struck out 146 in 120IP, and in spring training he had 7k in 10IP. I don't think strikeouts are the problem with him... the other thing I like is that he's a braves draft pick, in fact he was their first round #7 overall pick in 2009.... the braves usually don't screw up these sort of things.

The other young guy he's got who piques my interest is Zach Britton, but I tend to like Mike Minor over him personally.... Hell, I'll have a chance to see tomorrow as Minor is getting a spot start up in Miller Park against the Brewers. The kid started off nicely last season, even notching a 6IP 12K game before the league adjusted to him and knocked him around for a bunch of ~4 ER starts and then he kind of fell apart and that was that. It seems like Beachy has more pinpoint control at the moment, but I think Minor's time will come someday...

This league is goofy about prospects.... but I can't wait for Matt Moore to show up someday =D

Re: Cliff Lee and Jepsin for J. Chacin, Belt,and Mike Minor?

PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2011 6:05 am
by kaiser
I think you make this deal. It's a gamble, for sure, but not a huge one. In a league like yours, the winning strategy is going to be to find the future prospects, not the guys who are currently at the top of their games. You are selling high on Lee, and getting a return that should pay dividends next year or beyond. All you need is for one of those three guys to hit, and it's a winner.

Re: Cliff Lee and Jepsin for J. Chacin, Belt,and Mike Minor?

PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2011 12:53 pm
by sinicalypse
anyone else? i'm getting a bunch of yes votes from people across irc and other msgboards, but this is the cafe and y'all got sway... i'm on the WHIR bandwagon so load me up and i'll tralk.