I bet that you very well could end up with Miguel Cabrera at pick #5, as in a bunch of drafts I've seen slip down to as low as 8.... granted Miguel was an end-of-the-first-round pick last season, don't forget he was still a raging boozehound going into last season as well, as he got caught up with a drinking incident at the end of the 2009 season when le tigre needed him to make a run to the playoffs. Fat and drunk or otherwise, the kid can hit... his worst season was like .307/30/103 or something, and when I draft in the first round I like to get someone who even in an off year can give me a floor of .300/30/100.... ask people who drafted IAN KINSLAH in the first round last year how that worked out for them.
Otherwise, as it's been said here, that drop from 56-80 is a big drop... IMHO, around rounds 5-8 is where you really set up the heart and soul of your team. That's around the time where most people start getting their staff aces, so if you wanted to get someone like a David Price (who isn't likely to win 19 games like he did last year, but if you look at his game log for last year he was as consistent a guy @ 2.72/1.19 as you'll find. for example, Jon Lester seems to start off bad, catch up, then have a 2IP 8ER performance every ~1.5-2 months, whereas Price only had one 7ER game and one 5ER game and then that was IT) or Tommy Hanson (in his highschool yearbook he was voted "Most Likely to Have a Breakout Season in 2011") or this is around the time that someone like Brian McCann goes... or hell, around this time if you wanted to try and stack the deck and get a closer like Carlos Marmol, who I figure is likely to have 100+K in ~70IP again (138K in ~78IP would be a tall order to expect again... as a rule of thumb always plan on your studs to regress a little bit so that way the only surprise outside of horrific injury/mental breakdown is good stuff) which will help you in the K department should you construct a good staff.
Basically, take a look at the top 5 picks in the draft... Most times it'll be Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria (who I think is a better real-life baseball player than he is a fantasy one... those #s don't bowl you over), Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, or Ryan Braun. Out of ~8 drafts I think I've seen Carl Crawford go as high as 6.... well anyways, take a look at all of those guys stats and tell me how radically different they are from Albert Pujols. Technically, in 5x5 12 team standard roto CarGo was #1 and Pujols was #2, and as a Pujols owner last year (for the first time since 2001) I can tell you that it seemed like he was stuck in molasses early on but he was steadily headed towards #2ville, as Miguel Cabrera (#3 overall) was ahead of him for most of the year. Hell, Ryan Braun (~#20something last year during an off year) was #4 overall when he gave you a typical Braun year two seasons ago. If Tulo can stay on the damn field he'll be a top-10 overall guy... Joey Votto always hangs out at #10 overall, and I mean, if you compare Joey Votto (#4 overall last year) to Albert Pujols, you get Votto @ .324/37/113/16 and Albert Himself was .312/42/118/14.
Albert Pujols is a name-brand product. He's done it for a decade straight and his worst season in the bigs was a .327/32/103 season a few years back. He's never had a major injury that he couldn't not play through. Eerily similar to Albert is Miguel Cabrera, whose worst season was .324/34/103-- unless you count his .339/26/114 season).. so basically, while I would personally still draft Miguel Cabrera as #2 overall right behind Albert, many owners are scared off by this DUI and if he drops to 5, let alone 9, you get him.
At #5, shoot.... for some reason people still love Hanley Ramirez at #2 and Tulo is usually gone by #3 or #4, hell I've seen him go #1 in a draft (then again, I've also seen Halladay go #1 or #3 in a draft) so at 5 you'll have a shot at Miguel Cabera or Joey Votto or Carlos Gonzalez or my dark-horse for "first round steal" Ryan Braun.... if he gets back up to his usual .300+/35ish/110+ season and gets back up to that mystical ~20 stolen base realm (tho his ~15 is what you expect) you're looking at top-5 production. Last year was an off-year for Ryan Braun, who is in that magical 27-28 year old prime right now.... I mean, look at Braun's stats of two years ago versus Carlos Gonzalez's stats of last year.
I'd be slightly weary of Carlos Gonzalez, as many young players tend to regress somewhat after their first big bad year... they have an offseason usually filled with new paper and billing as a superstar and it's easy to fall into a trap and regress some, i.e. Kung Fu Panda Sandoval last year (I saw that SF sells jerseyshirts that say PANDOVAL on them, go figure. Hell I managed to get Pablo in a waiver wire pickup with the 11th waiver spot cuz too many people are put off by his bad year last year and/or figure that MARK DE-ROSA has a chance to unseat a ~24-25 year old kid @ 3B.... please!)
So yeah, long story short, I WOULDN'T MAKE THE TRADE. that drop from 56-80 is killer, and whoever wants to trade you that is figuring the same thing I'm telling you... barring Albert having another super-on year akin to 09 where he's like .330/47/135 or something, if he stays around his usual ~.310/40/115 self, if you're able to get a .300+/~35ish/110ish bat in the first round, then is it worth taking a significant hit in your SP/RP or overall team depth just to have the privledge of saying you've got albert pujols? I think not... Pujols is basically a gift that's there for you should you end up with the #1 overall pick... I mean it's nice to know that you're going to have a top-5 producer come hell or high water, but at the same time, with wits and guile it's pretty easy to cushion the blow of not getting Pujols... especially with Miguel Cabrera's offseason production making him imminently attainable anywhere from picks 3-9. That's who I targeted in all of my autopick drafts, ranking him 2nd on my rankings, and I ended up with him in 4/5 leagues, the only exception being a league where I drafted 10th or something. Otherwise in all of the leagues i've been in, MigCab went #3 overall in the Winners League, to me @ #6, to me @ #4, to me @#4, #5, and in a H2H league he went #4.
So if you can't get MigCab and you want a locked in stud 1B, how about Joey Votto? The kid is turning 28 on Sept 10th and went #8 in the Winners League (I had pick #9 and wanted him, so I went for Braun), #5, #7, #7, #7, and in the H2H league take a wild guess... that's right, #7.
Votto is legit... he might not duplicate last year's #s exactly, but he'll definitely be in the ballpark, if not standing on 2nd base with a stand-up double to the right-center gap. It certainly looks like you can at least get him @ #5 if Cabrera isn't there, and therefore, your difference between Albert Pujols @ #1 and MigCab/Votto @ #5 isn't big enough to warrant dropping ~24 picks or whatever in arguably the most clutch part of a draft.
SO NO, DON'T MAKE THE TRADE. CONSIDER THE OPTIONS I PUT BEFORE YEEEE.
Take a look at mine if you're a nice chap who does that sort of a thing >> viewtopic.php?t=424347