bigh0rt wrote:MTUCache wrote:HesterMofet wrote:I agree, and the East looks to be as strong as it's been in years with what Boston & Baltimore have done this winter.MTUCache wrote:How many innings are you getting out of your 5th/6th starter? 100? Unless you've got no IP-limit you're picking and choosing good matchups for them anyway, so season projections are basically useless. A young kid in the AL-East may end up with 140K/3.80/1.30 overall and a 100K/3.30/1.15 when you take out his games against the Yankees/Sox.
So wtf are we debating here? Haven't we already covered this?HesterMofet wrote:Read & comprehend what's going on in the thread.
Chacin has already done what you're hoping Hellickson can do. Over a K per inning, 1.27 WHIP, 3.28 ERA in nearly 150 innings last year. If you wanna play the fun game where you sit him against his bad matchups, then he gets even better too. Chacin has shown he can do it over a season, while Hellickson has shown he can do it for three starts. Could he come out and rock the tires in 2011? Absolutely. I'd just bank on Chacin being the more likely of the two this season. He'll have more favorable matchups and ballparks, and was an absolute stud away from Coors Field last year, where he wasn't all that bad either.
Eh...I'm going with Hellickson (in most leagues). I like them both a good deal, but I don't like throwing out minor league numbers, and Hellickson has a clear advantage in those -- walk & k rates especially. Chacin had a k/9 in the 7s for most of his minor league career. If his rate dips towards that while the walks remain high (and they've always been high), noone should be shocked. 100 extra MLB innings aren't much to bank on. I'm not sure about the parks -- while Petco and Dodger stadium are good, Coors is still Coors, and that's half the games. I thought the Rays park was decent for pitchers, if not the best. I don't know how those balance out, but I'm not convinced it's any better for Chacin than a wash.
In Chacin's favor are the league/division and his gb tendencies. I'm willing to be convinced, and those are def nice pluses, but for now I'm going with the minor league track record.
BUT...in the op's case, where he's thinking about fantasy playoffs and a possible shutdown/winddown of Hellickson -- okay, that's a legit concern, and that bridges the gap some. Personally, I still probably go with Hellickson, but it's something to look into.