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Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby khm7x » Mon Mar 21, 2011 8:20 pm

A few guys I'm targeting early in my auction:

Miggy Cabrera: guaranteed first round production at a slightly discounted price due to perceived risk from the DUI. Longoria going ahead of him is just laughable. And at 27, not out of the question that we could see more growth

Nelson Cruz: a legit top 10 player if he can stay on the field for a full year

Dan Haren: 2010 was an aberration and I'm buying on the discount.

Francisco Liriano: Top 5 SP potential. Elite K rate, on a good team, in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball. We've seen dominance from him before over almost a full season, so this is not like Gallardo or Scherzer where we are drafting based on unrealized potential.
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby Montana168 » Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:03 pm

I seem to have drafted a lot of the same sleepers on most of my teams (3 so far), which is a great strategy if they all succeed, but if they all are busts, watchout :-o .

Matt Kemp-Absolutely love his 2nd/3rd round value this year. He is still the #2 OF behind Braun in my eyes, and I think this will finally be the year he delievers 30-30 .300. I know he'll be hitting in the cleanup spot, but I expect that to change once they see how slow ethier is in the 3-hole.

Ian Kinsler-I honestly believe he is being drafted as a bargain this year. I understand the injury risk, and I accept that is why people are afraid of him. Returning to the leadoff spot is where he is most comfortable, but in the a 30/30 potential 2B in the 3rd round? I'll take that all day, he'll be a 2nd rounder again next year.

Jordan Zimmerman-Reminds me of Josh Johnson coming back from TJ surgery. Has the same upside, but has to prove it. I am more than willing to spend as high as a 15/16th round pick on this kid, but you can get him for a 19th+ rd pick in nearly every draft.

Mike Minor-Minor and Zimm are the two main reasons I am trying to wait on SP in every draft. Minor has elite K potential, and has solid control. He and Zimm will be on IP limitations, but you can worry about that later in the season.

Sean Rodriguez-Legit has 30/20 potential. He has been a fantasy sleeper for the past 2+ years so this is probably his last chance to breakout before he has zero value. He has the opportunity at 2B, and is also going to be Brignac's primary backup SS. If he can manage to get that SS elig, he is going to be verrrrry valueable if he breaks out. If he gets SS, him, tulo, and hanley will be the only SS with 30/20 potential, althought s-rod's avg with be much lower. And yes, I just put s-rod in the same sentence as tulo and hanley :-o .

Kila Ka'aihue-I'm not really buying all the "experts" that are saying Kila will not hit above .260. Sure, he has struggled for the most part in the majors, but he has not been given a real opporunity for AB's yet. Now he is getting that chance. He has elite plate discipline, talking Albert Pujols elite plate discipline, walks a lot more than he k's. Now we have to see if he can translate that to the majors. He is being drafted outside the top 20 1b, but I believe he will put up numbers just as good or better than Kendrys Morales who is the #10/11 1B off the board.

Dexter Fowler-It is very surprising that everyone is writing this kid off already. He had a sophomore slump, I realize that, but he's being drafted past the 20th round. I will buy that in every draft. Has yet to really been given a full-time gig, and I think this year he will get over 550 AB and 40+ steals with 10-15 HR. Can you say carl crawford numbers in the 20th :-L .

I know some of those projections are pretty lofty, and all won't work out, but those are my favorite value, must-own players in drafts this year and those are my ceiling expectations. ;-D
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