Well since this thread does say Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts I'm going to change the game up a little bit.
- Adam Dunn: He's a target/must-own for me because I'm going heavy into pitching, and he'll give you power #s that aren't too distant from a 2nd round 1B (that is, unless Prince and Ryan Howard go 46/141 again) in the 5th round. In my Winners League he went in the third round for this very reason... He's playing in arguably the biggest bandbox in MLB, so with a more potent lineup around him in that park he could be a nice 40+/120ish dark-horse. Having Adam Dunn as your secondary power-bat allows you more flexibility.
- Vladimir Guerrero: Here's a guy who is a .320 career hitter who answered injury concerns last year by going .300/29/115, heck, even during his injury-addled 2009 season the other day I calculated that if you take his performance from when he finally stopped getting injured and multiplied it out over a whole season you'd end up with .290/33/87. I'll give you that the guy did swoon from mid-july to mid-september, but still, that took him from a top-10 overall bat to #29 overall where he ended up. I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled something like .315/23/90 out of his arse this year, or who knows, maybe the guy has a fullblown .330/30/100 season in him... the guy's a hall of famer, and he can be yours for a song circa rounds 9-13.
- Carlos Zambrano: Here's another guy who can be yours circa rounds 15-18 or something like that. At the end of last year after his bullpen demotion and his siesta away from the team, he came back circa august 10th and won 8 of his last 10 starts, giving up no more than 2 ER in each start. He had a 5.71 ERA when he was reinstated on the team and he finished with 3.33 ERA, which was actually his best in years. While it seems like this guy has been around forever, he's only turning 30 in June. This year there's no Lou Pinella led "WE'RE GOING TO WIN. PERIOD" crap and there's an actual manager there, so for the first time since 2006 Carlos doesn't have expectations to be the ace of a world-series-contender, so I look for him to have a return to ~2006ish form, which was 16 wins 3.40era and a 1.29 whip and 210K in 214IP. The Ks might not be quite that high, but if you look at his last two years his K rate is back up. He was crusing along with a ~1.38 ERA through his first ~4 starts before the Reds got a couple'a homeruns off of him, which caused him to claim that he wasn't showing them everything. He looks fine to me.
Otherwise, my "targets"
- Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester or David Price, Tommy Hanson, Matt Cain or Mat Latos (tho I prefer Cain). I see it like I'm taking Felix in round 2, and the only time I haven't gotten Felix in round 2 was one time when Halladay was still there @ pick 14 or something. I also nabbed Hellickson circa rounds 12-15, and have been using him as tradebait to fill the holes in my team. Sure, he could be really good, but right now I'm getting nice trades back just on his name alone.
- Gordon Beckham and Neil Walker at the 2B position. You can usually end up with both of them for cheap, like rounds 10+ cheap.
- Edwin Encarnacion has a fighting chance to stay healthy this year as he's a primary DH. Last year in ~330 at bats he pulled a .250/21/52 type line, which projects out nicely over ~600 at bats if you think he can duplicate that again.
Oh yeah and I bet you can get Frank Francisco for cheap. I've seen him on waiver wires in a couple'a leagues, even after he was formally named closer.