Fenris-77 wrote:Aside from thinking that this season a guy like Longoria will have a better season (which I do, or at least coin flip value)? I don't think Crawford's any kind of lock to out-produce Wright either for that matter, although again, it's pretty much a coin flip IMO. And, since that's how I have them projected and ranked, I'll take the guys with more power when power is at a premium in a way that stolen bases simply aren't. I'm not saying you can't invest a high pick in Crawford (since he's obviously very good) I'm just saying that I won't be drafting him instead of some of the heavier hitters that are also ranked in the first round.
My main leagues are auctions so it's something of an academic point that I'd argue where exactly Crawford slots. Suffice it to say, I'll probably be willing to pay a few dollars more than his average auction value. I wonder, still, where exactly he should slot given your thoughts on power vs speed.
As much as I have been an advocate of devaluing position scarcity, I think both of the SSs, along with Pujols and Cabrera are pretty surefire bets to go ahead of Crawford. For me, he becomes a consideration at #5, along with Votto, Longoria, Braun, Wright (if you're feeling especially frisky, perhaps Adrian).
I guess at this point, the only one I'm strongly considering over Crawford is Votto, whereas I'm leaning towards Crawford over Braun and the other 2 first basemen.
For those who like Braun over Crawford, is there any particular reason to expect a rebound season, particularly with respect to HR power? His advanced metrics seem to suggest that the power decline is a legitimate result of his becoming more of a contact hitter. I guess I just don't see Braun as being a viable consideration over Crawford if I only project a 10 HR difference between the two. In and of itself, it's a big margin, but given Crawford's incredible SB/AVG/Rs potential, I think the 10 HR gap is mitigated pretty easily.
I guess all I'm saying is that if I thought it was reasonable to project 35 HRs for Braun, I'd be apt to rethink him in particular over Crawford, but I've yet to hear a compelling argument for why I should expect a rebound.