There is a lot of variance here. While you're in a tough spot to make a decision, you still have a lot of great choices since after #4, you have like 7 guys that all have very similar value.
I've done 2 mocks and a real draft so far for a 12 team league, the results have been:
Hope that helps. Assuming Tulo goes 4, I would go: Longoria>Votto>A.Gonzalez>Cargo/Braun>Crawford