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kab21 wrote:What happens in this strategy if your opponent punts W's, K's and SV's and only starts his best starter and some cheap elite MR options (assuming the min IP is 10-20)?
quiksilver wrote:20-1 is a bit of an exaggeration, but your point is noted. Keep in mind that you have to be a bit overkill with it in order to account for fluctuations on a week-to-week basis. There are a few advantages to taking a guy like Crawford, or not totally putting it off at least:
1) Stability: you get every day starters as opposed to 4th outfielders, 9-hole hitters, and .200 guys who steal in bunches whenever they actually get on.
2) More production: they put you in the race for runs and AVG on random weeks, which can be important since you occasionally do lose ERA and/or WHIP.
3) Block opponents: This is a bit of a reach, and not a huge factor, but still. Nyjer Morgan is 30% owned, so if you don't draft him he's an anonymous waiver wire-er for the most part. If you don't draft Crawford then an opponent has him, which will make them more competitive when facing you. This one is a bit of a reach, but something to take into account.
As for the opponent catching on... albeit rare, it happens. Overall they need a lot of factors to work in their favor for it to work out, and even if it does they then have to hope that you counteracting it with the same tactic doesn't work. So, they would need a dominant start first thing in the week, then relief innings from lesser closers that stack up better, and they would need it to not work out for you. Given your better pitching and the chance that you could randomly win some offensive categories, if all of your opponents tried this every week it would work maybe 3/10. Usually by the time managers think of doing this, it's too late and they've made a bad start they can't rebound from. Certainly it is a vulnerability, and something you have to look out for.
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