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garf112 wrote:I don't trust him, yet. Before last year, it wasn't just a playing time thing, it was also an injury thing. 228 DL days in the past three seasons including last year when he had zero. 363 DL days in the past five years... I don't see him being healthy all year, which will hurt his value. Think 500 plate appearances versus 633 last year.
garf112 wrote:But he has had groin and hamstring issues... The hamstring was so bad that he was put on the 60 DL and missed 75 days. I wouldn't say that an injury jumping into the stands to catch a fly ball is a "fluke." Guys that go all out tend to get injured a lot... Especially center fielders. He also had surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow and missed 50 days. Colitis can be a chronic condition... Here's where I got all of the injury history from: http://www.baseballinjurytool.com/playerresult.php.
He was my fantasy savior last year in many ways, but I think he comes into this season overvalued.
CBMGreatOne wrote:I like Pagan, but that is based on the fact that he seems to be going very cheaply in drafts. I would not pay for last season's numbers by any means. He was a good story and a very productive FA OF for a lot of fantasy teams last year, but if people are especially eager to buy, the price might get too high for my taste.
The difference between Pagan and Victorino is upside. I think Victorino is capable of hitting 20 HRs, whereas Pagan is more likely to top out at 10-12. The speed is comparable, but I'd give the slight edge to Shane. If I knew Pagan would stay healthy and at the top of the lineup, I'd project him at around 90 Rs. Victorino in 650 ABs has a much more realistic chance to be in the 110 range. Vic also should have a slight edge in RBIs although neither will be very valuable in that category. Pagan hit for higher average than Victorino last year, but I'd call batting average a wash between the two.
All that said, I expect Victorino almost certainly to be too expensive, whereas Pagan has a realistic shot of slipping to my price range.
garf112 wrote:how bout now?
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