by **Matthias** » Sun Feb 27, 2011 10:43 am

FWIW, I think that generally speaking Pujols comes up undervalued when people apply methodologies such as the LPP one. Here's the thing that most people don't really think about, or if they do, not in a real formal way.

Pretend Projected Statline for Albert Pujols:

.330/35hrs/102r/125rbi/12sb

Pretend Projected Statline for Carlos Gozalez:

.310/35hrs/100r/105rbi/20sb

The way that these calculations work is they basically value each one of those stats, so Albert's .330 avg may be worth $6 to your team and Cargo's .310 avg may be worth $4 and then Albert's 35 hr's would be worth say $5 and Cargo's 35 hr's would be worth $5 and so on and so forth.

Here's the hitch. What people don't think about formally is that all these are just projections. IF both players hit these projections they'll be worth exactly what they're projected out to be.* With Pujols, however, you're pretty rock solid that you're going to get those numbers. Eventually you won't, sure, but if you were to put a %age probability on it it would be something like 85% where you have maybe 10% injury risk and 5% performance risk. For someone like CarGo or frankly most new arrivals to the top tier of players it's probably like 65% where you have 10% injury risk and 25% performance/coming back to earth risk.

So if you really wanted to know the value of these players you really should multiply their calculated value times the probability that they'll hit these numbers. And if you do that, I think Pujols' value, by virtue of being so completely consistent, jumps up even more.

People do think this way informally, of course. They'll say things such as, "I don't think they'll repeat" or, "I wouldn't spend more than $X on so-and-so" but they never really articulate the above as to what is going on.

* Well, not exactly as the value of a stat may go up or down depending upon the total league performance, but pretty close.

0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.