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Skin Blues wrote:I'm not that familiar with Pecota, but I know that some sites that do projections that are highly stats based vs intuition based ignore saves altogether. They're not really tied to skill at all. Exhibit A: Fernando Rodney. The idea is that to begin the season, you'll have a pretty good idea who is each team's closer, or who is in the running, and can basically give all teams the same amount of saves to distribute amongst their pitchers. Even if they did offer a number of saves that Drew Storen would get, considering how early in the year they publish their magazine, would you really give it much credence?
spydog wrote:Pecota is a good projection system, but they aren't really fantasy-centric. Up until a couple of years ago they didn't even project runs and RBIs. They have never done a great job at projecting playing time, either. I used them for a few years for fantasy and was fairly disappointed and didn't renew my membership in 2010.
EWeaver wrote:I'm not saying PECOTA and Shandler and CHONE and who/whatever aren't fun or interesting to read, but c'mon. They have no greater ability in forecasting what's going to happen in 2011 than a reasonably informed baseball fan's intuition.
EWeaver wrote:One way to know for sure that it's worthless is this: if you could, with any significantly improved accuracy beyond educated guessing, predict the future, you wouldn't share that information with others.
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