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RDD15 wrote:So you are questioning Raiders Ump's opinion like he is out of his mind. He said that Buchholz ERA will be closer to 4 than 3. That means he thinks that Buchholz will have a 3.51 ERA or higher. He thinks that he will be more likely to win 12-14 than 16-18. And you think that the Sox should win 99-104 games.
Lets look at some respected predictors of stats:
MARCEL-12 wins and 3.49 ERA
ZIPS-14 wins and 3.79 ERA
JAMES-13 wins and 3.54
ESPN-16 wins and 3.35
CBS-15 wins and 3.46
So only one of these 5 think that he will crack that 16 win plateau, and while three of the five believe that he will have a sub-3.50 ERA, two have him very very close.
RDD15 wrote:Could you possibly be looking at these predictions with some bias yourself? And to suggest that the Sox should easily win 99-104 games is kind of silly. They might have the best team in baseball, but to suggest that 99 wins is essentially a given and 104 would not be surprising is a bit much. It is reasonable to think that one MLB team per season will win 99 or more games on average. You are basically saying that you expect that Boston not only COULD, but rather SHOULD have the best record in baseball. I think that it is near impossible to expect with that much certainty that they are the best team in their own division, no less all of MLB.
HOOTIE wrote:Low K/9.
HOOTIE wrote:Boston is better, but Buchholz is in for a regression.
A .261 babip, to a career .285. .290-.300 is the norm for pitchers.
A 79% strand rate, 72% is the norm.
A 5.6% hr/fb ratio, 10% is the norm.
He got lucky in those catergories, making his 2.33 era very misleading.
His xFIP was 4.20.
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