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Keeper league: who do I keep?

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Keeper league: who do I keep?

Postby egizzi » Sat Feb 12, 2011 4:20 pm

At the bottom of this email is my existing roster minus the players that are in the AL and players taken in the expansion draft. The league is a 9 team, NL only, roto, 4x4 (OBP, steals, homers, runs produced, wins, era, K-BBs, saves), keeper league. We get to keep 12 players. Budget is $260 with a $130 FAAB for the season. Total roster is 29. 14 position players and 9 pitchers. Pitchers of value are only starters and closers. 2 catchers, 1 1b, 1 2b, 1 ss, 1 3b, 1 middle infielder, 1 corner infielder, 5 outfielders, 9 pitchers, 5 reserves.

Last year was the first year I played fantasy baseball. I started at the bottom, but ended up winning in the last 2 weeks, and proudly beat the smug team that had held first place for the whole season. I kept most of my original drafted players, picked up low cost keepers through FAAB and traded them later in the season for big names. I decided early on to play to win for the current year and not start planning for future years yet. But now this is next year.

The dilemma is strategy. The players I am thinking of keeping are not cheap but are good value based on their projected draft valuation. The only exception is Albert Pujols, who will be $47 dollars. First base is a pretty shallow position and I happen to have landed the best player in baseball. I hate to let him go. The problem is that if I embark on this strategy, I will have the lowest amount of money available for the draft. The question is will this put me at a significant disadvantage for the whole season. The smug team is already wanting to trade (offered me garbage keepers for Cargo).

I want to keep (with new salaries for this year which is previous +2)

Cargo 24
Werth 19
McCutcheon 17
Ryan Zimmerman 27
Tulo 32
Kelley Johnson 12
Pujols 47
Latos 11
Montero 11
and 3 others yet to be determined.

Here is my roster with last year's salary (this year it goes up by 2)

Pos Name (Qual Pos) Team Status Salary Contract
C Hill, Koyie (C) 1
C Montero, Miguel (C) 10
1B Pujols, Albert (1B, CR) 45
2B Johnson, Kelly (2B, MI) 10
3B Ramirez, Aramis (3B, CR) 21
3B Zimmerman, Ryan (3B, CR) 25
SS Tulowitzki, Troy (SS, MI) 30
CR Lee, Derrek (1B, CR) DTD 16
MI Ramirez, Hanley (SS, MI) 43
OF Gonzalez, Carlos (OF) 22
OF Guillen, Jose (OF, DH) DTD 1
OF McCutchen, Andrew (OF) 15
OF Smith, Seth (OF) 4
OF Werth, Jayson (OF) 17
P Blanton, Joe (P) 2
P De La Rosa, Jorge (P) 4
P Hammel, Jason (P1
P Jackson, Edwin (P) 10
P Jurrjens, Jair (P) O 9
P Latos, Mat (P) 9
P Lyon, Brandon (P) 3
P Narveson, Chris (P) 2
P Padilla, Vicente (P) 1
P Sanabia, Alex 1
P Wilson, Brian (P1) 16
P Zambrano, Carlos (P) 9

So 2 questions:

1) is my strategy doomed?
2) ideas about the last 3 keepers (or 4 if I don't keep Pujols) I need
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Re: Keeper league: who do I keep?

Postby Elsy » Sat Feb 12, 2011 4:58 pm

I would definately keep one of Pujols or HanRam, problem is too expensive too keep both it looks like. I would try a deal one of them to another team for some cheaper younger talent with potential since it seems your not going to keep them both.

I would keep Wilson at 18 over Latos at 13,

I would hold onto Werth for 19(good trade value I think later on or after the draft),

Also Blanton at 4 and Jurrjens at 11 seem like the only other I would go with. Or keep Latos and not Jurrjens.

Depends on whether or not as I said earlier can Pujols or HanRam be moved. You might not get equal value but maybe something better than what else that you have to keep.
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Re: Keeper league: who do I keep?

Postby fast dogs » Sat Feb 12, 2011 5:00 pm

some tough decisions for sure, will be interesting to see what everyone says here. I like Werth in Philly for $17 alot better than $19 in Wash. He might go for that again but on your roster I might let him go. Same for Montero. I like both Col pitchers for that price. Lyon & Blanton too. So right away I'm headed a different direction than you. It seems to me with Pujols, Tulo, Zimm, McCutch KJ & Cargo your offense should compete with anyone in an NL league with anyone else you can add. You've got some cheap pitchers to go with Latos, Wilson will probably go for that much again, another tough decision. I'd be more than happy to start the year with more stars and less $ to spend with this group.If you keep both closers you are almost set; add another co-ace to go with Latos and do your best to find bargain SP & the rest of your offense and you should be in great shape again. try to trade Werth, JJ & maybe Wilson for another SP; you've got the makings of an awefully good team again no matter who ends up with the final couple spots
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Re: Keeper league: who do I keep?

Postby egizzi » Sat Feb 12, 2011 5:14 pm

Thanks for those replies. Comments:

1) I don't think I'll keep HanRam b/c I have Tulo for a much better price
2) I worry about Jurrjens in my league b/c he is not a strikeout pitcher. One of the reasons I won last year with my motley crew of pitchers was that I specifically selected ones with a good K-BB number. Aside from Latos, I didn't have a single ace.
3) I worry about Blanton not being in the NL
4) I can only keep 12. So trading at this point for multiple players (ie trading Werth or Pujols) seems challenging because I would likely get several players in return and I'm not sure it would simplify things because I could just as easily have kept some of my existing pitchers (De La Rosa, Jason Hammel, Brandon Lyon for example).
5) Brian Wilson at $18 is a good deal. I got burned last year with Broxton. Lyon at $3 is obviously a much better price. Keep both?
6) I love my outfield of Werth, McCutch and Cargo because it offers a nice combo of average, power and speed.

Our draft is March 3rd (yes, very early because it was the only date that worked)

By the way, the smug team wanted Cargo for Kuroda, Byrd and one other keeper of my "reasonable" choosing. I chose Heyward and they haven't responded.
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