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Jose Bautista's Random Variance +5 in Forecaster 11

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Jose Bautista's Random Variance +5 in Forecaster 11

Postby oscar15 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:30 am

Am I missing something?
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Re: Jose Bautista's Random Variance +5 in Forecaster 11

Postby StlSluggers » Fri Jan 28, 2011 1:03 pm

I don't know, but I feel like I'm missing something.

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Re: Jose Bautista's Random Variance +5 in Forecaster 11

Postby oscar15 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 3:12 pm

lol

I try to keep the wording of my post to a minimum.

If you are not familiar with The Baseball Forecaster the post makes no sense.

Random Variance means that a players performance from last year will probably move toward his career performance, or skill set.

+5 means that Bautista is due to rebound from last years performance.



Sorry for the confusion.
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Re: Jose Bautista's Random Variance +5 in Forecaster 11

Postby daullaz » Fri Jan 28, 2011 3:28 pm

Well, he did have a very small hit rate which led to his very high xBA (.330). The +5 Rand Var may be taking that hit rate/xBA into account.
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Re: Jose Bautista's Random Variance +5 in Forecaster 11

Postby mweir145 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 3:46 pm

garf112 wrote:I feel like the entire Blue Jays team had a terrible BABIP. Could that have something to do with the defenses they hit against being superior somehow?

Team of flyball hitters that nearly breaks the 1997 Mariners team HR record=low team BABIP

Still, they probably had some bad luck too...they're the Jays.
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Re: Jose Bautista's Random Variance +5 in Forecaster 11

Postby oscar15 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:45 pm

Here is the reply I received from baseballhq. Like I said, I'm not much of a stat guy.

Interesting that HR don't factor into the equation.


Hi Vance,

Actually, not a typo. If you look at the metrics that RandVar measures for hitters (h%, hr/f, and xBA) and compares to actual production, what the +5 is saying is that he got less value out of his 2010 skill set than we would have expected. For instance, look at his .260 BA compared to .330 xBA. When we see that sort of gap, we would normally expect BA improvement to be coming. Similarly, he had a 24% hit rate, compared to prior levels in the upper 20s.

Now, I wouldn't necessarily put a ton of stock in that +5, as some of the modeling that's going on there probably breaks down as you start to look at skills that are as outlying as Bautista's. For instance, the low h% is at least partially due to the fact that HR are excluded from that calculation, so that's 54 hits that he's not getting "credit" for there (since those are not, in fact, balls in play). It's a very unusual skill profile. The +5 is awfully interesting, but not necessarily predictive.

Hope this helps,

Ray Murphy
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Re: Jose Bautista's Random Variance +5 in Forecaster 11

Postby Cleveland Steamers » Sat Jan 29, 2011 11:16 am

oscar15 wrote:Here is the reply I received from baseballhq. Like I said, I'm not much of a stat guy.

Interesting that HR don't factor into the equation.


Hi Vance,

Actually, not a typo. If you look at the metrics that RandVar measures for hitters (h%, hr/f, and xBA) and compares to actual production, what the +5 is saying is that he got less value out of his 2010 skill set than we would have expected. For instance, look at his .260 BA compared to .330 xBA. When we see that sort of gap, we would normally expect BA improvement to be coming. Similarly, he had a 24% hit rate, compared to prior levels in the upper 20s.

Now, I wouldn't necessarily put a ton of stock in that +5, as some of the modeling that's going on there probably breaks down as you start to look at skills that are as outlying as Bautista's. For instance, the low h% is at least partially due to the fact that HR are excluded from that calculation, so that's 54 hits that he's not getting "credit" for there (since those are not, in fact, balls in play). It's a very unusual skill profile. The +5 is awfully interesting, but not necessarily predictive.

Hope this helps,

Ray Murphy
BaseballHQ


Thanks for taking the time to email them. I was curious as well.
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Re: Jose Bautista's Random Variance +5 in Forecaster 11

Postby stoggie10 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 9:26 pm

Say Oscar what does the forecaster say about Car Go? Where would you draft him?
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Re: Jose Bautista's Random Variance +5 in Forecaster 11

Postby oscar15 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 9:59 pm

stoggie10 wrote:Say Oscar what does the forecaster say about Car Go? Where would you draft him?



One pick before you! :-)
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