I can't really express myself in terms of concrete vows, but I took some lessons from football this year that I think translate well to baseball.
Don't get caught up in the need to fill every position with what you consider to be a viable top option. In any fantasy sport, there are much fewer players that are significantly above replacement level than there are players who hover around the 100-200 mark on the player rater. That is to say that the majority of players are interchangeable. For example: If I don't get Hanley or Tulo, I'm not going to be overly interested in making sure I get one of the next couple of shortstops. Chances are that the difference between a guy like Stephen Drew and the 12th player at his position--- let's just say Ian Desmond or Asdrubal Cabrera is going to be minimal. If I don't get a special player at a position, I wait.
By extension, the goal of my draft should be to find star players. In football this year, I ended up with only a handful of players who were significantly better than replacement level. I squandered a huge % of my auction budget on guys like DeAngelo Williams, Randy Moss, Matt Schaub, Steve Smith and Jonathan Stewart only to get the kind of production I probably could have gotten by playing the waiver wire.
If there is a place to go "safe" it is in the first few rounds. By all means take MCab in round 1, Halladay in round 2, and Holliday in round 3. These are guys who are very likely to produce way more than the ones you'd be replacing them with if they got hurt, and that's where value comes from. I absolutely will NOT be taking "safe" players in the mid rounds however. In round 8, why blow a pick on Bobby Abreu, who is essentially guaranteed mediocrity at the expense of a guy like Drew Stubbs, who is a candidate to be this year's Carlos Gonzalez in terms of draft value?
In the above case, we're talking about an OF2. How many of you that have played fantasy baseball for more than a year or so have had trouble finding a decent OF2 to start for you? If you play the waiver wire at all, you can find this year's version of 2010's Angel Pagan. What you can't find is this year's version of Carlos Gonzalez.
In summary, I am content to swing and miss on my mid and late round picks. The whole idea is to find those players who will significantly outperform the top players likely to be residing on the waiver wire for much of the year. Like I said, if I miss, I can approximate the production of a veteran in regression just by being active on the wire, but I likely can't find those true breakout gems anywhere but the draft.