I am in the process of developing a fantasy baseball algorithm specifically designed to aid in draft day selection for my leagues custom format.

scoring settings: h2h - 9x9

offense: R, H, 2b, 3b, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG

pithing: W, Sv, Ks, HLD, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9, QS

all of this started from the fact i was dissatisfied with yahoo's (our preferred hosting site) player rankings not taking in account our additional scoring categories. it's just common sense that this league would yield substantially different results from traditional 5x5 leagues.

so i made an excel spreadsheet and imported all batters with over 50 abs and all pitchers with over 20 IP for the 2010 season just to keep things relatively simple at the time.

i then weighted every scoring category to attempt to have them equal the same value within a h2h format, as all wins = 1 point and all loses = 0 points come weeks end. i felt i have accomplished this by dividing a particular players total for that scoring category by the total number of occurrences found within this particular sample set.

for instance: there were 1198 saves, 1993 holds, and 2410 wins for the entire imported player pool. my reasoning tells me that due to the disparity between these categories, a save will be twice as effective at winning its respective category versus a win due to it being twice as scarce, and subsequently that a relief pitcher with 5 wins and 10 saves will be 39.9% more effective (valuable) as a relief pitcher with 5 wins and 10 holds.

here is a breakdown of all the scoring categories totals for players meeting the AB/IP minimum

2410 wins

1198 saves

33294 strikeouts

1993 holds

4.018 average ERA

1.336 average WHIP

2.219 average K/BB

7.139 average K/9

**quality starts: 10076.92 - see note

20507 runs

40860 hits

8170 doubles

842 triples

4511 HR

19550 RBI

2893 SB

15234 BB

0.2628 AVG

all of the dynamic categories (ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, AVG) ive taken in account for a IP factor or a AB factor. obviously a pitcher with 1.00 whip over 10 innings is not as valuable as a pitcher with 1.05 WHIP over 200 innings, and this hopefully accounts for that. it takes the number of innings pitched/AB for that player divided by the entire value for the league.

total IP: 41970

total AB: 155468

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note:

i have converted this stat into an value representing the likelihood of a QS for a pitchers season due to the criteria specificity nature of this stat. players with a higher value will have a higher chance of earning a QS. i did this to also allow me to see any potential outliers or abnormally high/low QS versus probable expectancy. this value takes in account games started calculated against games pitched (to take out inflated numbers that spot starters would have), ER, and innings pitched. my reasoning: pitchers that have higher innings per start and lower runs per inning will theoretically have higher quality starts.

example of arguably the top 5 pitchers for 2011 (in no particular order): felix hernandez computed a value of 134.48 (1st), adam wainwright: 122.47 (2nd), roy halladay: 121.42 (3rd), cliff lee 79.18 (38th), and tim lincecum: 86.41(29th)

number of quality starts and rank in parenthesis: felix hernandez: 30 (1st), adam wainwright: 25 (t-4th), roy halladay (t-4th), cliff lee: 18 (t-53), tim lincecum:22 (t-18)

this leads me to be confident in my quality start predictor. the actual value of of the calculated number as the end result is to compare each pitcher against one another in an attempt to see who will have a higher effect (adding to the scoring) for this one particular stat, thus making them more valuable.

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interesting observations i have made:

one triple is equally as valuable as almost 5.35 homeruns and one steal is equally as valuable as 1.55 home runs.

one triple is equally as valuable as almost 23.22 RBI and one steal is equally as valuable as 6.75 RBI

so with the same exact logic i have used to compare relievers i have concluded that a player with 10 triples and 34 stolen bases (shane victorino) would be more valuable than a player with 42 Home Runs and 118 RBI (albert pujols) in this simplified comparison.

10 triples = 232.2 RBI and 34 SB = 52.7 HR.

now i understand there is A LOT more that goes into calculating a players relative value versus another player, but taken across all 18 scoring categories, last years statistics show me that shane victorino (a total score of 0.04934) was, in fact, more valuable than albert pujols (0.04747), a difference of 3.8%

i understand that a total value calculation cannot be performed to the precision that i would like because not all of these stats would count and some leagues would yield more valuable yielding box score stats than others, but this should show a general trend.

i have run this for just the standard 5x5 scoring cats, and under last year the best h2h player a team could have in terms of winning the most points is: health bell (0.0512 weighted score) . highest ranked positional player: juan pierre (but maybe there is validity i nthis statement as i was struggling to make the playoffs last year in my league. needed help in stolen bases and walks. added juan pierre and daric barton (both 1 cat guys) and eventually won the league).

is/where is my logic wrong? everything that i (thought) i know about fantasy baseball goes completely against what i am find through this trial algorithm.

yes i understand this is borderline perverse but i have a job that allows me ample time on the computer, so i took this up instead of playing games. any critiques or suggestions? attached is my file. i have mocked together some projections for players of interest to see how they compare in some other worksheets within the spreadsheet.

link to file: https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B5XYzu ... ist&num=50