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how much does a first round pick really matter?

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Postby sinicalypse » Sat Mar 27, 2004 3:16 pm

well in my world, you want to get a player who is going to for sure put up upper tier #s. its kind of a crapshoot to guess who's going to explode and hit 10-15 more HRs than they usually do, or who's going to drive in 140 this year... tho sometimes you have an idea.

i'm biased cuz vlad guerrero is my favorite player and prior is my favorite pitcher, so in the 1st round if i can get either of them... i rank prior ahead of vlad and nab him, but in all but one of my drafts prior was gone, so taking vlad was a no-brainer.

but in general, i think the theory is you want one very ballyhooed player who is very capable of putting up 40/120, someone i'd peg at 85%+ of doing that, or get a damn good pitcher who doesnt seem to be a giant injury risk (hopefully prior isnt that)

cuz i mean, ideally, you want your 1st round pick to be a consistent performer, even if your team is the worst ever, you've got one damn good player chipping in to the futility. think of how many people got burned with ichiro when they took him in, what, 2002 was it... i saw him go as high as pick #7 or #8 cuz people thought he'd hit .370 with 60 steals, but then he was like .330 with 30something steals and it's like oh schnapps mang thats just not right.

so say, albert pujols, there's the world's most example of a first round pick. barring freakish injury this guy is about as sure as there is for a .330/30/100 lock, with .350/45/140 never being out of the question. so like, i mean, take .330-.350/30-45/100-140 on locks any day of hte week.

and there is my overly wordy theory on 1st round drafting. huzzah![/img]
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Postby esm » Sat Mar 27, 2004 3:33 pm

It's all about the competition. In a weak league a manager can win even with making mistakes in the draft (in whichever segment.)

But in a tough, tight league, if a manager screws up in the draft he has no margin for injuries, poor season performances, unexpected MLB trades reducing your guys value, etc.

Also, the size of the league matters. One of mine is 16 teams with 25 players. Believe me, the free agency pool is dry. This years, Loaiza or Podsednik is going to be grabbed too early. Teams will be snatching any rookie pitcher who wins 2 games in a row, or hitter who homers in consecutive games.

Don't take foolish chances in the early rounds and be aware of the scoring cats for the league in which you're drafting.
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Postby brdmaverick » Sat Mar 27, 2004 3:45 pm

I had a great draft last year, getting players like AROD, Sosa, and Delgado, but what really made my team stand out were my free agent acquisitions thoughout the year, such as these guys......................

3B Hank Blalock
SP Brett Myers
1B David Ortiz
C Ramon Hernandez
3B Aramis Ramirez
SP Dontrelle Willis

and to top it off, I was able to trade....

Adam Dunn/Hank Blalock/Brett Myers


Manny Ramirez/Jim Edmonds/Jeff Suppan

so the season is not won and lost on draft night
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Postby 4Pack » Sat Mar 27, 2004 3:59 pm

I agree with pretty much all of you! While you don't want to waste a lst round pick by using it to pick up a player that is 6th or 7th round talent....that pick is just the beginning of your team and is just one player. You can make or break your team in the middle and late rounds.

Also....a "bad" draft is not always gloom and doom for your season. If your an agressive manager who plays close attention to what is happening in the baseball world and to the available talent pool in your league...along with making a couple shrewd trades with your few top can turn a bad draft into a very good team over the course of the season.
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