Ridgerunner wrote:Humans don't fit your statistical theorem as well as you might think.
Of course not, otherwise we would be able to predict who would win immediatly after the draft because all we would have to do is plug in the expected stats and calculate the winner. Regardless, Loaiza may in fact duplicate last year (and in the league that I just drafted him in last night I am hoping he does), but I'm certaintly not expecting it.
If Loaiza had only 2-3 years of medicore numbers before last year, then I would be more willing to agree that he turned some corner. But with 8 years before last year, I'm a bit wary.
Even look at last years splits. before the All Star game, ERA 2.21, WHIP 1.06. Post All Star game ERA 3.84, WHIP 1.19.
I'll draft him in any league, but he'll most likely be off the board before I'm willing to take him.