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Why the hate for Loaiza???

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Re: regression of the mean

Postby bretmacmo » Thu Mar 25, 2004 11:57 am

Ridgerunner wrote:Humans don't fit your statistical theorem as well as you might think.

Of course not, otherwise we would be able to predict who would win immediatly after the draft because all we would have to do is plug in the expected stats and calculate the winner. Regardless, Loaiza may in fact duplicate last year (and in the league that I just drafted him in last night I am hoping he does), but I'm certaintly not expecting it.

If Loaiza had only 2-3 years of medicore numbers before last year, then I would be more willing to agree that he turned some corner. But with 8 years before last year, I'm a bit wary.

Even look at last years splits. before the All Star game, ERA 2.21, WHIP 1.06. Post All Star game ERA 3.84, WHIP 1.19.

I'll draft him in any league, but he'll most likely be off the board before I'm willing to take him.
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Postby AROD'S JOCKSTRAP » Thu Mar 25, 2004 12:00 pm

I picked up Loaiza, Webb & Willis off the wavier wire and won my pay league!

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Postby Guest » Thu Mar 25, 2004 12:10 pm

1. He added two new pitches, a cut fastball and a split finger fastball.
2. His K rate improved tremendously which tells me that it wasn't a total fluke, and his K rate this spring has been better than 7 per 9 innings.
3. His second half stats were skewed by 3 poor outings at the beginning of September. His last 3 starts of the season were very good and back to the way he had been pitching all year.
4. I don't think he'll win 21 again with an ERA under 3 but 15-16 wins with a 3.50 ERA and 200 strikeouts is certainly doable, pretty good for a guy who can be had in the 8-10 round

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Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Mar 25, 2004 12:25 pm

I hate him. Hate him with the passion of a thousand white hot suns.

The Jays picked him up, gave him a big contract, showed all of the faith in the world in him and he crapped out. I do like his name though - Esteban Loaiza is a cool name.

The only thing worse would be if Chris Carpenter or Cory Lidle won the Cy Young - if that happened I might hunt them down myself (that was a jk)
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Postby KULCAT » Thu Mar 25, 2004 12:45 pm

i wonder if the same argument was made last year for Derek Lowe?
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Postby Madison » Thu Mar 25, 2004 12:50 pm

KULCAT wrote:i wonder if the same argument was made last year for Derek Lowe?

I didn't expect a repeat out of Lowe, but I did expect him to do better than he did. Good thing he was drafted much earlier than I would have taken him. :-D
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Postby HollywoodHershiserz » Thu Mar 25, 2004 1:03 pm

bretmacmo wrote:It's called Regression to the Mean.

Things can and will return to their natural state.

Loaiza has enough games under his belt to show that last year was not the norm for him. He is a 4.50-5.00 ERA and 1.40-1.50 WHIP type pitcher. Last year was a fluke.

Example: Brady Anderson's HR totals from 93 to 99. 13, 12, 16, 50, 18, 18, 24.

well that's attributed to steroids...something which I doubt Loaiza took.

I see his numbers as;

166 K's
3.22 ERA
1.23 Whip
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Postby Hbj79 » Thu Mar 25, 2004 1:08 pm

I actually don't think it's true that there had been nothing in Loaiza career to indicate he might breakout. A lot of scouts liked him for along time. He has always been incosistent but through out his career he would often pitch 4-6 games of dominant ball before being blown up.
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Postby Nomar4prez » Thu Mar 25, 2004 1:24 pm

KULCAT wrote:i wonder if the same argument was made last year for Derek Lowe?

Lowe's numbers from last year have to be looked at in splits. He was good at home, and AWFUL at away games. He also had to deal with the possiblity of having skin cancer last year(luckily, it wasn't).
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Postby mkooljr1 » Thu Mar 25, 2004 8:00 pm

Ya know, I've read most of the threads and posts from the trillion made about Loaiza and I never posted my thoughts, but after seeing Madison with his opinion over and over again, i had to jump in. You keep bringing up his 2nd half era and his past statistics, and then say no more than 12 wins and a 4+ era. I find it very funny that you have been given the icon for "fantasy expert" to tell you the truth. Have you bothered to look at the fact his K rate actually improved in the 2nd half? It went from 7.32 to 9.46!! His walk rate increased slightly, and so did his HR rate, but that's a huge improvement in his K rate in the 2nd half, considering his 1st half was already a huge improvement over previous years. So if anything, his 2nd half proves he WASN'T a fluke. You make no mention of any of his peripheral stats, which mean a lot more than era alone. Defense and a pitcher's bullpen, in addition to a bunch of other factors, influence a pitcher's era of which a pitcher has no control over. So choosing to just look at era is a sure-fire way to evaluate pitchers poorly. But if you all wanna avoid Loaiza, be my guest, but i'll be riding him for another year of great stats in my league.
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