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jake_twothousandfive wrote:Masterson's poor command is a bad sign (5.02 BB/9, 46.7% Zone%). Particularly for someone who relys so heavily on the fastball (80.3%).
Taking a glance at a pitcher’s HR/FB rate can help tell you if a player got lucky or unlucky over a season. Pitchers with HR/FB rates much higher or lower than league average will tend to regress towards league average in the future, which will have a corresponding effect on their ERAs and FIPs.
Based on the research of Voros McCracken and others, BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher's defense and luck, rather than persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. A typical BABIP is about .300.
jake_twothousandfive wrote:Naturally BABIP will rise as the denominator in the formula used in it's calculation falls (see Randy Johnson from 1998-2002; when he recorded 300+ Ks each season). So his high K/9 is working against him here
jake_twothousandfive wrote:Also, HR/FB% isn't really indicative of luck.
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