Inukchuk wrote:lastingsgriller wrote:40ish? Miggy is a career .313 hitter.. but more importanatly it seems that Cabrerra has topped out. he's shown us how good he is capable of being. Which is no doubt exceptional.. .320, 34 hr, 115 RBI.. but whats scary about longoria is that he is just about there. he is there in hr and RBI and this is only his 3rd season. he made significant progress last season and looks this year as though he is still getting better. no clue where the ceiling is for longoria. but is .310, 42hr, 125 RBI impossible? no, it is safe to say that it is not. and he plays 3rd base.
Eh, the problem with using Miggy's career average is it takes his age 19 and 20 seasons into account. Since then, his career avg (which is more than enough of a sample size to base projection on, IMO) is 321. If you really want to drive the point home, you could discount his first year in Detroit (292) as an adjustment period. Aside from that year, his lowest yearly average was 320. He's a legitimate threat to win the batting crown every year, and I have no problem projecting at least a 325 avg from him.
Clearly, Longo is young and still developing, but with the K rates he carries (and has always carried), I see no way he ever gets to 310 barring a fluky BABIP year.
Look at it this way: from age 20 to 24, Cabrera carried a 313 avg all compiled against major league pitching. During the same age span, Longoria batted 289, but 40% of his ABs were against minor league pitching.
So to answer your question: a 310 avg might not be impossible, but I find it to be very improbable. Also, to say Cabrera has topped out in May of his age 27 season is a bit ridiculous, in my opinion. ...
I don't really see how you can throw out any averages.. becasue if you are going to throw out outliers than you probably have to throw out the year he hit .339 as well.. because for some reason that year he sacrificed power for line drives, hence only 26 hr's but 50 doubles.. (career low in hr's and career high in doubles) which is most likely the reason for the outlier average.
Inukchuk wrote:By the way, did you really need to include that smug little smiley at the end? Pretty rude way to respond, imo...
no.. no ill will meant here. I love both of these players and think a valid argument can be made from both sides.. maybe would have been better to use the "tounge in cheek" guy..